Between yesterday and todays market action, I’m becoming more and more encouraged that we’re getting closer to the bottom of the market fallout. I’m not sure why I feel that way, because another part of me feels that another shoe may drop, and we’ll be in for another decline.

I heard a comment recently on the radio that there has never been a recession in an election year, mostly due to the fact that those running for re-election become more focused on the needs of the people they represent (i.e. the economy) as those are the people that elect them. Not sure how true that is, but I think that’s a rather general statistic and, after all, all records are broken at some point in time.

By in large, our credit crises has yet to filter in to commercial real estate, and I think it will to some extent. What effect that trend has on the overall stock market is yet to be seen.

There is a lot of money being reinvested back into the stock market today, and I’m curious to see if that trend continues over the next couple days.

My good buddy Winston told me that we’ll know we’ve found the bottom of the stock market decline when the volatility (VIX) spikes to around 30 or so. I’d like to know the rational behind that statement, but in the last five days the volatility has been up quite a bit.

Economics, Investing markets, recession, volatility