My Provident Energy Trust (PVX: chart, web, Y!) has been on the slide since the beginning of November. I can’t figure out why.

The only conclusion I can come to is that it’s attributed to end of year tax selling, but that theory only makes marginal sense. After all, PVX is continuing its CDN$0.12 monthly dividend, and fundamentally, I don’t see why they’d drop the distribution any time soon. Crude oil ($wtic: chart) is still North of $90 per barrel, and natural gas ($natgas: chart) is holding above $7 per MCF.

So it’s tough to tell why the stock has dropped nearly 30% since its high of $13.55 back in the first part of November.

However, I extended the chart out a few years today, and noticed a pattern. The stock price has dropped significantly in between late October and late November nearly every year since the inception in 2002. To further exploit the pattern, over the past three years, the stock starts its way upward after the beginning of the year and peaks somewhere around July.

I’m not sure how I’m going to play this. I’ve held PVX for its healthy monthly dividend, and haven’t really considered trading it based on the chart. However, it would be tough to miss out on a 30% gain that I can see coming…

What do you think? Would you play this trend?

Investing, Market Trends, Oil & Gas, Royalty Trusts crude oil, dividends, Market Trends, natural gas, Provident Energy, PVX, royalty trust