Between yesterday and todays market action, I’m becoming more and more encouraged that we’re getting closer to the bottom of the market fallout. I’m not sure why I feel that way, because another part of me feels that another shoe may drop, and we’ll be in for another decline.

I heard a comment recently on the radio that there has never been a recession in an election year, mostly due to the fact that those running for re-election become more focused on the needs of the people they represent (i.e. the economy) as those are the people that elect them. Not sure how true that is, but I …

It seems the sentiment on the trading floor is that oil is going higher. Scott Hess, is an crude trader on the Nymex, and if his outlook bears any fruit, oil is going higher.

Today an employment report revealed that seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls rose by 18,000 in December, the weakest job growth since August 2003. On top of that, private-sector payrolls fell by 13,000, the first decline in more than four years.

Most economists, as well as the market, were expecting payrolls to increase about 58,000 in December.

I view this as a sign that the economy is starting to falter. Housing is in toilets, unemployment is rising, consumer spending is in limbo, gas prices are high and going higher, and to cap it all off, our credit cards are maxed out (and by “we” I mean Americans in general).

It doesn’t help that …

Things aren’t looking half bad in the stock market these days. The volume of the NYSE listed shares that rose in price is more than 94% of the total volume on that exchange, which means the chances are good you made some money today.

Those in the “know” call these 9-to-1 up days. Days where there is a drastic imbalance of shares trading up over shares trading down.

Martin Zweig worte in his 1986 book, “Winning on Wall Street” that “Every bull market in history, and many good intermediate advances, have been launched with a buying stampede that included one or more 9-to-1 up days.”

A bull market? Seriously?

Existing-home sales fell …

There are very few people out there that can seem to justify the near $100 price tag on crude oil. The fundamentals based on supply and demand support levels much lower than $100, leading one to believe that the additional premium on black tea is built on speculation, which tends to be the most volatile trait of a commodity.

So one has to wonder, is it time to short crude?

The next question you might ask, is if so, how? The traditional way to trade oil is through a futures account, which tends to be an expensive endeavor just to set up …