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Considering Sprint

April 27th, 2010

Cree (CREE: chart, web, Y!) has been really good to my portfolio.  I’ve basically doubled my money which is probably a first for me.  (I’ve been halved, and halved again, but never doubled up).

So now I’m looking for the next opportunity.  It’s not that I’m turning on Cree, I just need another stock that has as much room to grow as Cree did when I did my first analysis on the company back in June of 2009.

In the spirit of “go with what you know”, I’m looking at Sprint (S: chart, web, Y!).

It’s not that I have any extensive knowledge of the company itself, but I do use their service (ever since I switched from Verizon in January).

Sprint has made a rough go of it in the wireless industry over the last several years.  Customer service has been at the top of the complaint list for many customers, and the Nextel acquisition turned out terribly.

Sprint_Chart_26Apr10What’s interesting is that the company is silently competitive.  While AT&T and Verizon are in a fierce advertisement battle, Sprint is the lower cost solution with competitive service and products.

Customer service is getting better, coverage is good and getting better, and the company is extensively developing a 4G network in a partnership with Clearwire.

Sprint announces first quarter earnings on Wednesday, and the expectation is that they’ll post another 300,000 subscribers.  Those will most likely be Nextel customers, and I suspect the CDMA side of the business will show a net gain in customers.

The expectation is that Sprint will post a $0.10 per share loss, and they’ll probably meet that expectation (I wouldn’t be surprised if the loss is greater than expected, either).

The silver lining.

Things are getting better.  The Nextel business is essentially dead, and the company will probably just let it die.  Customers (like me) are going to the low-cost solution and letting Verizon and AT&T spend the big bucks on television ads.

The company has a great future in the 4G segment, and will probably revolutionize the wireless industry.

CEO Dan Hesse is rational about the direction of the company; willing to spend money on R&D, and is realistic about the subscriber base.

My plans?

I’ll wait till the numbers come out on Wednesday.  There is more short-term downside potential than upside potential (i.e. through the next week or so after earnings).  That said, I’ll buy on an appreciable pull back under $4.

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