Provident Year End Results

Saturday, March 22nd, 2008

Last Wednesday, Provident Energy (PVX: chart, web, Y!) came out with their 2007 year-end and Q407 report, and also provided an update on reserves.

All around a positive report, and I’m curious as to why the stock dropped almost a dollar in two days on a fairly bullish report. The only thing I can think of is that crude oil ($wtic: chart) dropped $6 and natural gas ($natgas: chart) prices waned almost a dollar in those same two days will a lot of money fleeing commodities.

A few highlights from the report:

The payout ratio in the fourth quarter of …


Outlook on oil.

Sunday, March 2nd, 2008

It seems the sentiment on the trading floor is that oil is going higher. Scott Hess, is an crude trader on the Nymex, and if his outlook bears any fruit, oil is going higher.


Crude, sweet crude.

Tuesday, February 26th, 2008

I had a few teaser comments in my post on how Venezuela is cutting off their supply of crude oil to the United States, and I noted the low quality of the crude they export to us, and I touched on the refining requirements to process their oil.

So I thought I’d expand on this a bit and explain the different types of crude oil.

When it comes to crude oil, there are several different varieties, some of which are more familiar than others. For instance, sweet crude refers to hydrocarbons with relatively small amounts of hydrogen …


Why isn’t Venezuela vs. Exxon a bigger deal?

Friday, February 15th, 2008

Venezuela has taken steps to fortify their dominance in the oil and gas market, and has said it will suspend oil shipments to Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM: chart, web, Y!). This is an obvious attempt by Hugo Chavez to thumb his nose at the United States, however I’m not sure what his true motivation is: money or power… perhaps both.

You see, the crude oil coming out of Venezuela is heavy crude high in sulfur, making it very difficult to refine in comparison to light sweet crude. The high sulfuric content wreaks havoc on industrial components due to its highly caustic and corrosive …


Oil crosses $100 but nets a $600 loss.

Friday, January 4th, 2008

Last Wednesday crude oil ($wtic: chart) crossed the magic $100 per barrel threshold for the first time ever. But now it appears that the event was an attempt to gain 15 minutes of fame.

Evidently, a single trader bid up the price of crude by buying a 1,000 barrel contract off the floor for $100 per barrel, then turned around and sold it for $99.60 per barrel, a $600 loss (crude crossed the magic $100 line again the next day, but let’s face it, there are no points for second place!).

Most trading in energy futures has shifted …


Provident Energy: I see a trend.

Friday, December 21st, 2007

My Provident Energy Trust (PVX: chart, web, Y!) has been on the slide since the beginning of November. I can’t figure out why.

The only conclusion I can come to is that it’s attributed to end of year tax selling, but that theory only makes marginal sense. After all, PVX is continuing its CDN$0.12 monthly dividend, and fundamentally, I don’t see why they’d drop the distribution any time soon. Crude oil ($wtic: chart) is still North of $90 per barrel, and natural gas ($natgas: chart) is holding above $7 per MCF….


Is it time to short crude?

Friday, November 23rd, 2007

There are very few people out there that can seem to justify the near $100 price tag on crude oil. The fundamentals based on supply and demand support levels much lower than $100, leading one to believe that the additional premium on black tea is built on speculation, which tends to be the most volatile trait of a commodity.

So one has to wonder, is it time to short crude?

The next question you might ask, is if so, how? The traditional way to trade oil is through a futures account, which tends to be an expensive endeavor just to set up …


Crude Settles Higher, Dollar Be Lower

Tuesday, October 30th, 2007

Yesterday crude oil settled in above $93 per barrel on production problems in Mexico and a weaker dollar.
Pemex, of Mexico, took 600,000 barrels a day off line due to weather. Most of the problem stems from ports being closed, as they are unable to export any more crude and have run out of storage.

The lost production will likely be made up quickly, but it will certainly draw on U.S. inventory levels in the coming weeks, which should further support prices. Crude is up 10% since Wednesday, when the DOE said in its weekly inventory report that stockpiles fell, contrary to analysts’ expectations for a build.

On Wednesday, the Fed may …


Where, oh where is the outrage?

Thursday, October 18th, 2007

Another example of economic short-term memory.

Crude prices are continuing upward, as today Nymex Crude closed just shy of $90 per barrel. But in contrast to previous spikes, we’re not hearing the political sounding board in Washington cry for windfall profits taxes, and the talking heads are not aghast with news of gasoline shortages…

Oil is up 8% just in the few weeks since the Fed cut interest rates to bail us out of the credit crisis, and in the process fueled one of the strongest commodities (pardon the pun) we’ve seen in a long time as the thought of a higher …