Starbucks (SBUX: chart, web, Y!) has been making valiant efforts in marketing to combat the effects of cheaper coffee shops and gourmet coffee-selling fast food chains.  But they’re coming up short.

I could smell this one coming from miles away (pardon the pun).  The first thing to suffer from a falling economy is the discretionary purchases that have become most routine.  When you first start looking at your budget and ask yourself the question: “where can I save a few bucks here and a few bucks there?” the answer is easy.  You could quit spending $5 on a cup of coffee!

I remember when coffee was complimentary with any meal, and you could buy a cup of joe with all the fixin’s for less than $0.25 and usually for a dime.  That was then, this is now.

Starbucks business model is very focused on coffee, although they have branched out into light pastries and quick gourmet snacks.  But the focus is still on coffee.  Expensive coffee.

I only frequent Starbucks when I travel.  They have quick kiosks right next to the gates at the airport, and generally my travel schedule dictates that I arrive for the earliest of flights to where ever I’m going. Most restaurants aren’t open that early, but Starbucks has the brew going strong (again… the pun) before I’ve arrived.

The problem is that I just want coffee.  Plain old black coffee.  No mocha-lotta-cappa-whatever… just coffee.  I usually end up getting a blank stare from the barrista (er… whatever they call the guy who pours the coffee) for wanting “just coffee” but then after shelling out nearly $3.50 for “just coffee” I make my way to the gate.

I digress.

Starbucks is in trouble.  We’ll find out just how much trouble on Wednesday when they report earnings.  Analysts are predicting an EPS of $0.21, which is just $0.02 more than a year ago.

I’m not a gambling man, but I bet SBUX misses estimates.

Investing coffee, SBUX