Hopefully I’m not the only one that’s noticed that the tone regarding the economy coming out of Washington has changed markedly in the last week.  And it should come as no surprise.

The Obama administration desperately needed to convey how bad things were to garner support for the $700+ billion “stimulus” bill, as well as the $400+ billion budget.  There would be no way he’d have the votes if people thought that kind of money weren’t needed.

Now that those two bills have passed, Obama has become the nation’s loudest cheerleader.  And for good reason.  His entire political capital rests in the success of those two packages to somehow speed economic recovery.

It also doesn’t help that the Chinese are questioning their investment in U.S. debt, to which Obama responded with such arrogance as to question why they would even be worried.  In fact, he’s trying to sell the Chinese even more debt; an effort akin to selling bullshit to a cattle rancher.

In effect, there’s really no reason for Obama to maintain any further pessimism, as doing so no longer helps his cause.

I hope the American public is tuning into the political game that Obama has forced us all to join.   After all, now that he owns Boardwalk and Park Place, he can’t help but encourage you to make a run at GO!  And if you land yourself in jail, not to worry, he’s got incentive to bail you out.

I can hear the construction commencing on those four hotels on the most expensive property on Monopoly.

Economics, Finance Barack Obama, Economics

To be honest, I’m not at all happy with how the election turned out.  However, I’m not sure I would have been “happy” if John McCain would have won, either. But the people voted, and I accept that, and political affiliations aside, I think it’s pretty cool that we have an African American President.

Perhaps it’s not that I’m not happy with the results, maybe it’s that I’m uneasy.  Yeah, that’s a better term.

I find it troubling that we’ve elected to the office of the President of the United States a man that has unarguably affiliated himself with such questionable people.  The likes of Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers; neither of these men reflect what I view as men with respectable character to be associated with at all.  One can argue about the extent in which Barack Obama was associated with either of these men, but the fact that he was associated with them at all speaks to his own character and morals, first and foremost.  After all, I believe your character is reflected upon by the company you keep.

As citizens, we’re asked to select the next leader of the free world, and John McCain and Barack Obama were the best our two political parties could come up with?  This year more than previous, I feel as though I had to vote for the lesser of two evils.

I digress.

Barack Obama’s success as President is at the mercy of the economy.  The majority of people leaving polling places indicated that the economy was the number one factor when making their decision to vote, and I believe Obama’s success as President will hinge on the same.

If the economy does not turn around within four years, and if unemployment is at levels higher than during the Bush administration, and if the stock market is at levels lower than highest-high during the Bush administration, Barack Obama will have a very difficult time getting re-elected.

Why? He promised change, and people are going to hold him to it (the Republicans specifically will too, for sure).  There were very few fine details of what Barack Obama would change, aside from broad and general overtones that he would raise taxes on the rich, redistribute wealth, raise capital gains and dividends taxes, bankrupt the coal industry allowing electricity prices to “necessarily skyrocket”, give everyone the right to health care, etc.

Unfortunately for the Democrats, if he does any of these things before the economy rebounds, he’ll do nothing but stretch out the recession.  And if he stretches it out too far, he’ll only see a single term as President.

What do you mean by “too far”?

As I’ve mentioned numerous times on this blog, Americans have a severe short-term memory problem (after all, they forgot that it was actually the Clinton administration that started the housing problem). They view $3 gas as “cheap” compared to $4 gas they bought two months prior, even though just 8 months further back in time it was under $2.

They voted for change, but even more explicitly they want change now.  I’m reminded of the character “Violet” in Willy Wonka and the Chocolate factory… “I want the world, and I want it now!”

So, smart guy, what should he do?

If Barack Obama is smart, he’ll “change” very little in the first year of his administration.  The harder the government tries to “fix” our economic problems, the longer those problems will drag out.

Instead, he should cut federal spending until it hurts, and then cut some more.  Be smart about it, and leave the programs that provide a return on investment alone.  There are some obvious infrastructures within the federal government that may benefit from an increase in spending (spending money on the federal highway system always pays off in tough economic times), although those are few and far between.

He can also put a stop to all the needless pork stemming out of Washington too.  All he needs to do is hold a 10 minute press conference on national television and say the following words:  “Any bill that crosses my desk that has so much as one cent of pork or earmarks attached to it will be vetoed, no questions asked.”  Then, back that statement up with action.

Even if it’s a bill to cure cancer, with an additional million to fund a bacon museum, he vetoes it, and holds another 10 minute press conference on national television and explain to the American people why he had to veto a bill to cure cancer.  It’s a simple as that.

After that, show the people the results.  Show them what the budget was before he made his federal spending cuts, and then show the budget afterwords, and detail all the federal programs that were cut and what those cuts saved us.

If there is still a budget deficit, explain to the American people that he’s going to have to raise taxes, slowly, and for everyone, over the next 4 years (assuming he’s planning on running for re-election), and he’ll evaluate the budget every year to determine if he can halt the tax increases or even lower them.

Remember, all Americans should benefit from federal programs equally.  The rich typically don’t benefit from the federal highway system any more than the middle class, and they shouldn’t pay more for it either.  The postal system benefits everyone who has ever mailed a letter.  Just because you pay more taxes doesn’t mean your mail gets delivered any faster, or for any less money for a stamp.  The FAA benefits anyone who travels by air, or anyone who has received cargo or mailed anything via the federal airspace system.  Just because you pay more in taxes doesn’t mean your plane goes any faster or your ticket is any cheaper.  NASA benefits us all, just about equally.  Velcro, microwaves, Tang… all used and consumed by those who pay taxes and those who do.

So it’s all about the economy?

Yes, for the most part.  Barack Obama ran his campaign leveraging his ability to attract money as well as taking advantage of the weak economy.  Remember, it was just over 12 months ago that Barack Obama came out and said he was going to raise taxes… for everyone.  It was easier to get away with then because people still had funds in their 401(k).  As the economic downturn started pressing people financially, he realized that claiming to raise taxes on everyone would be political suicide.  So that’s when he started talking about raising taxes on anyone over a certain dollar amount.  After all, those people should be able to absorb higher taxes… right?

Barack Obama has to “change” things drastically and he has to give the people that voted for him a qualitative and quantitative return on their vote.

If the people that voted for him are no better off than they were at the end of George W. Bush’s term, he will not be re-elected.

I went to the polls to vote for the best man for President, only to find out he wasn’t running.

Economics, Politics Barack Obama, Politics, president, short term memory, United States