Archive for the 'Stock Thoughts' Category

Stock Thoughts: Petrobras Energia (PZE)

Sunday, June 8th, 2008

MJ over at Dyslexic Research asked me to research Petrobras Energia Participaciones S.A. (PZE: chart, web, Y!) in return for looking over Ingersoll-Rand.

Simply stated, Petrobras Energia focuses on oil and gas exploration and production, refining and distribution, and transmission of electricity in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela.

Financial Look

Looking at Petrobras financials, they seem to have a decent set of books.  Profit margin is healthy for a smaller oil and gas producer of 4.22%.  While it’s very lucrative right now to be in the oil business, smaller companies like Petrobras (as compared to Exxon, Chevron, etc) are going to have …


Stock Thoughts: Ingersoll-Rand

Monday, June 2nd, 2008

Several days ago I asked my buddy MJ over at Dyslexic Research what he thought of Ingersoll-Rand (IR: chart, web, Y!).  I’m not really an industrials guy, as my area of knowledge rests more in energy (specifically oil and gas) and tech.  That said, I’ve been making efforts to broaden my knowledge and diversify my portfolio.

MJ, however, is very much in tune with industrial sector, and I figured he’d have a good opinion on the company.

So it was with great interest that I read his opinion post on the company.

As MJ mentions, Ingersoll-Rand is in early stages of acquiring Trane …


Walgreens Earnings

Monday, March 24th, 2008

Walgreen’s (WAG: chart, web, Y!) earnings came out today and they ended up beating Street estimates by 2 cents, and second quarter sales increased by 10.5% on comparable-store sales growth of 4.7%.

While the EPS was up, it didn’t match the sales growth, increasing just 6.5%.

So what’s the beef?

Walgreen’s earnings are commendable, but the fact that earnings aren’t out-growing sales leads me to believe margins are tightening. In fact, gross margins were down 14 basis points for a variety of reasons including mix shift and softer seasonal sales.

Expenses were up 11 basis points as a percentage of sales, however most of the expenses …


Provident Year End Results

Saturday, March 22nd, 2008

Last Wednesday, Provident Energy (PVX: chart, web, Y!) came out with their 2007 year-end and Q407 report, and also provided an update on reserves.

All around a positive report, and I’m curious as to why the stock dropped almost a dollar in two days on a fairly bullish report. The only thing I can think of is that crude oil ($wtic: chart) dropped $6 and natural gas ($natgas: chart) prices waned almost a dollar in those same two days will a lot of money fleeing commodities.

A few highlights from the report:

The payout ratio in the fourth quarter of …


Sprint an attractive takeover candidate?

Monday, March 3rd, 2008

Sprint (S: chart, web, Y!) has been down in the dumps lately. Actually for the last several years (or more accurately since they merged with Nextel). They just wrote down $29 billion, or the equivalent of that same Nextel merger.

Sprint is a poorly run company, not just at the executive level, but all across the board (although new CEO Dan Hesse is making a valiant effort to turn that around). Their marketing department never really sold the Nextel technology, and little money went into preserving the customer base Nextel generated. On top of that, Sprint didn’t spend enough …


Stock Thoughts: Goldman Sachs

Sunday, February 17th, 2008

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS: chart, web, Y!) is in the business of providing investment banking, and investment management services, primarily to corporations and financial institutions.

Goldman has been one of the few big investment banking and financial services firms that has actually held up well through the the fallout of the credit crisis and the housing slump. It’s low involvement in small residential mortgages and favorable short trades among the rest of the sector has worked in its favor.

The black sheep mentality compared to the rest of the sector has held the stock …


Stock Thoughts: Schering-Plough (SGP)

Saturday, January 26th, 2008

I’ve been watching Schering-Plough (SGP: chart, web, Y!) since I started looking for my next buy-it and forget-it stock. The stock price has fallen considerably since then on news that a company study produced disappointing results on the effects of Vytorin, a next generation cholesterol drug.



They study showed that Vytorin had no benefit on the buildup of artery plaque over the older drug Zocor. The silver lining to this story that is easily glanced over is that Vytorin cut bad cholesterol 40% more than Zocor or Zetia (Vytorin is …


Stock Thoughts: Archer Daniels (ADM)

Wednesday, December 12th, 2007

Recently our good buddy Winston mentioned a few stock ideas in a discussion about Walgreens. He mentioned that Archer Daniels-Midland (ADM: chart, web, Y!) was his buy-it and forget-stock. So I thought I’d dig into the numbers a bit to see if I agree.

Archer Daniels procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities and products primarily in the United States. They operate in three segments, namely oilseeds and corn processing, and agricultural services. Effectively they refine seeds and beens into vegetable oils for the food (i.e. salad dressing) and feed industries.

The AG-services side of the company engages in buying, storing, cleaning, and transporting agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, etc, and reselling these commodities to the agricultural processing industry.

An interesting, yet lightly publicized aspect of Archer Daniels is their interest in processing corn. For those of you who regularly read The Corner Office Blog, you know that I view the ethanol boom as nothing more than a farce. However, if you can make money in the face of a farce, by all means, run with the bulls!

Financial Summary

For the most recent quarter, Archer Daniels first quarter (FY08) net sales increased to $12.83 billion, up 35.8% from $9.45 billion for the same quarter in FY07, stimulated by commodity prices, and strong product demand in processing and AG-services segments. Oilseeds Processing sales increased 42.4% to $4.61 billion, boosted by higher prices and volumes due to strong demand for vegetable oil and soybean meal, and the higher average selling prices of fertilizers and oilseeds exported from South America. Corn Processing sales increased 12.6% to $1.52 billion, due to higher average selling prices in sweeteners and starches despite lower sales volumes and lower average selling prices for ethanol, whose current capacity exceeds customer demands.


Stock Thoughts: Walgreen Co. (WAG)

Sunday, December 9th, 2007

Back in October, I started looking for the next buy-it and forget-it stock. My initial thoughts were Southern Copper (PCU: chart, web, Y!) and Schering-Plough (SGP: chart, web, Y!). However, through comments on that post, Mike chimed in and mentioned Walgreen Co. (WAG: chart, web, Y!).

At the time Mike mentioned the stock, it was around $39 per share, and has since dropped a bit more and is starting to show signs of increasing value. I must disclose that Mike says he is a pharmacist and individual investor, and worked for almost all of the chain pharmacies (like Walgreens).

Financial Summary

The stock has a 3-month average volume of 9.2 million shares traded per day with a current market cap of $36.8 billion. The company is paying a $0.095 per share dividend on a quarterly basis, which translates into a 1% annual yield.

The price to earnings ratio (P/E) is 18.3 as of the writing of this post, which is a significant discount to the rest of the companies in the sector. The average P/E ratio in the sector is 29.82.

Earnings growth is 18.6 as compared to a 21.41 average for the sector.

Earnings per share (EPS) is $2.03 and continues to increase quarter to quarter.

A few quick facts about the company…

Walgreen Co. was incorporated as an Illinois corporation in 1909 as a successor to a business founded in 1901. Walgreens is the nation’s largest drugstore chain (based on sales) and recorded its 33rd year of consecutive sales and earnings growth. During the year, the company opened or acquired 563 stores for a net increase of 478 stores after relocations and closings, not including 58 locations acquired from Option Care, Inc. The total number of locations at August 31, 2007 was 5,997 located in 48 states and Puerto Rico. Aggressive growth will continue as the company anticipates operating more than 7,000 locations in 2010.


Looking for the Next Best Buy-it and Forget-it Stock

Wednesday, October 24th, 2007

I’ve been doing rather well in my Roth IRA for the last year. I’m holding Provident Energy (PVX: chart, web, Y!), which turns a healthy 11% dividend and pays monthly, Duncan Energy Partners (DEP: chart, web, Y!), which recently increased its dividend by 2.5%, and my company stock, which has better than doubled over the last year.

Being in the oil industry, I think it’s safe to say that I’m overweight in oil and gas; which, at this point in time is not such a bad thing. However, down the road, I foresee a major pullback in crude prices, which will not be such a good thing for the industry.

So, I’ve set out to find the next great “buy-it and forget-it” stock. Naturally, I don’t literally mean forget it. I just don’t want to have to watch the stock price every day with a twitchy trigger finger on the sell button.

I want a stock that I’ll hold for 2 or 3 years at a minimum, pays a bit of a dividend, but has tremendous room for growth, not only as an individual company, but I’d like to see a good forecast for growth in the sector too.

Here are a few options I’m looking at, for various different reasons.