Next week will reveal a lot about the state of our economy:

Institute for Supply Management data - April 1st.
The institutes’s data for March suggests a drop to 48.0 which would signal that the economy is close to falling into a recession.

Joint Economic Committee Meeting - April 2nd.
Ben Bernanke is set to testify before the congressional Joint Economic Committee on the out look of our economy. The committee will discuss whether our economy is already in a recession or heading into one.

Earnings: Best Buy and RIM - April 2nd.
Earnings reports for Best Buy (BBY: chart, web, Y!) and Research in Motion (RIMM: …

Walgreens reports earnings - March 24th
What a difference a day makes. Leap year is going to be particularly good to Walgreens (WAG: chart, web, Y!).

On Monday the drugstore chain reports second-quarter earnings, and those numbers garner help from one extra day’s worth of business in February. Same-store sales rose 8.3% in February, and analysts expect that February 29th sales will push the EPS up to 67 cents.

Oracle Insight - March 26th
Oracle (ORCL: chart, web, Y!) is scheduled to report fiscal third quarter earnings after the market closes on the 26th. Normally I don’t follow Oracle, but …

It has become clearly evident that the Fed works weekends.

Last night the Fed announced an emergency quarter point discount rate cut to 3.25%, and on top of that, offered to lend money to a longer list of firms than ever before.

The rare weekend move came as J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: chart, web, Y!) sealed a deal to buy Bear Stearns (BSC: chart, web, Y!) for just $2 a share backed by up to $30 billion borrowed from the Fed. The Fed board gave its approval to that unique funding arrangement, which guarantees JP Morgan against …

A few events to remember for next week:

Goldman Sachs reports earnings - March 18th, 8:30am
Goldman Sachs finished out 2007 in good shape with shares exceeding analysts predictions. However, Goldman’s true isolation from mortgage backed securities will be revealed in earnings for the next several quarters. With the bail out of Bear Stearns, I’m sure the street will be on pins and needles to see how well Goldman is fairing in this volatile market place.

Federal Open Market Committee meeting - March 18th, 9:00am .
Traders in interest rate futures have a 3/4% cut in the fed funds rate in mind and increasing evidence that the U.S. economy may be …

In a post a couple days ago, I brought up the notion that the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX: chart) could be a good indicator of when the bottom of the stock market decline will be found.

VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Referred to by some as the fear index, it represents one measure of the market’s expectation of volatility over the next 30 day period.

The VIX is quoted in terms of percentage points …

Big Ben opened his big mouth again today, and it seems his outlook on the economy is getting a bit more bearish each time his voice hits the airwaves.

Testifying today at the Senate Banking Committee, he said he now expects “sluggish growth” in the economy but predicted a “somewhat stronger pace” later in the year. He went on to attribute his stronger pace forecast to rate cuts and fiscal stimulus.

He threw in the caveat that housing and labor markets could deteriorate more than anticipated, emphasizing that “downside risks to growth remain.”

It seems that Bernanke is drawing criticism from Washington from both Republicans and Democrats, arguing that the recent efforts …

So we’re going into a recession. There are few out there who have not yet accepted this, and the only thing left to debate is whether we’re already in a recession, and how deep the pain will be.

There are several periods in time when, as investors, we’ve been backed into a similar corner. Perhaps like many of you, I’ve never personally been through a recession with a highly vested interest in the outcome, but there are a vast majority that have.

Recession, the ’90s Version

If you were around in the recession during 1990 and into 1991, you might be …

Today an employment report revealed that seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls rose by 18,000 in December, the weakest job growth since August 2003. On top of that, private-sector payrolls fell by 13,000, the first decline in more than four years.

Most economists, as well as the market, were expecting payrolls to increase about 58,000 in December.

I view this as a sign that the economy is starting to falter. Housing is in toilets, unemployment is rising, consumer spending is in limbo, gas prices are high and going higher, and to cap it all off, our credit cards are maxed out (and by “we” I mean Americans in general).

It doesn’t help that …

My Provident Energy Trust (PVX: chart, web, Y!) has been on the slide since the beginning of November. I can’t figure out why.

The only conclusion I can come to is that it’s attributed to end of year tax selling, but that theory only makes marginal sense. After all, PVX is continuing its CDN$0.12 monthly dividend, and fundamentally, I don’t see why they’d drop the distribution any time soon. Crude oil ($wtic: chart) is still North of $90 per barrel, and natural gas ($natgas: chart) is holding above $7 per MCF….

Things aren’t looking half bad in the stock market these days. The volume of the NYSE listed shares that rose in price is more than 94% of the total volume on that exchange, which means the chances are good you made some money today.

Those in the “know” call these 9-to-1 up days. Days where there is a drastic imbalance of shares trading up over shares trading down.

Martin Zweig worte in his 1986 book, “Winning on Wall Street” that “Every bull market in history, and many good intermediate advances, have been launched with a buying stampede that included one or more 9-to-1 up days.”

A bull market? Seriously?

Existing-home sales fell …