If you made money on the market today, you’re in the minority.

PVX dropped a ton, and someone consummated a trade at $0.01 per share.

I started a position in Sprint thinking I was smart stuff when it then went up, and then it got whacked.

Don’t know what’s going on in Europe, but it’s got equity markets scared.

Cree (CREE: chart, web, Y!) has been really good to my portfolio.  I’ve basically doubled my money which is probably a first for me.  (I’ve been halved, and halved again, but never doubled up).

So now I’m looking for the next opportunity.  It’s not that I’m turning on Cree, I just need another stock that has as much room to grow as Cree did when I did my first analysis on the company back in June of 2009.

In the spirit of “go with what you know”, I’m looking at Sprint (S: chart, web, Y!).

It’s not that I have any extensive knowledge of the company itself, but I do use their service (ever since I switched from Verizon in January).

Sprint has made a rough go of it in the wireless industry over the last several years.  Customer service has been at the top of the complaint list for many customers, and the Nextel acquisition turned out terribly.

What’s interesting is that the company is silently competitive.  While AT&T and Verizon are in a fierce advertisement battle, Sprint is the lower cost solution with competitive service and products.

Customer service is getting better, coverage is good and getting better, and the company is extensively developing a 4G network in a partnership with Clearwire.

Sprint announces first quarter earnings on Wednesday, and the expectation is that they’ll post another 300,000 subscribers.  Those will most likely be Nextel customers, and I suspect the CDMA side of the business will show a net gain in customers.

The expectation is that Sprint will post a $0.10 per share loss, and they’ll probably meet that expectation (I wouldn’t be surprised if the loss is greater than expected, either).

The silver lining.

Things are getting better.  The Nextel business is essentially dead, and the company will probably just let it die.  Customers (like me) are going to the low-cost solution and letting Verizon and AT&T spend the big bucks on television ads.

The company has a great future in the 4G segment, and will probably revolutionize the wireless industry.

CEO Dan Hesse is rational about the direction of the company; willing to spend money on R&D, and is realistic about the subscriber base.

My plans?

I’ll wait till the numbers come out on Wednesday.  There is more short-term downside potential than upside potential (i.e. through the next week or so after earnings).  That said, I’ll buy on an appreciable pull back under $4.

Duncan Energy Partners (DEP: chart, web, Y!) chairman Dan Duncan passed away in his home on Sunday night.

Duncan was no spring chicken, but in recent interviews, he really didn’t show any signs of, well…. decline.

The company indicated that it does not intend to change ownership or management of the partnerships, but it does leave the average DEP stockholder to question how the interests of the partnership going forward will be aligned with shareholders.

Ideally, you want all parties interests to be aligned.  If the CEO holds 50% of the shares and depends on the value of those shares appreciating in value, as a smaller stakes shareholder, you can feel somewhat secure that he’ll strive to create growth and value in the company to keep the value of the shares going up.  In essence, your general interests in the company are aligned.

Now that Duncan isn’t around, it will be interesting to see how interests of all parties line up.

Although I’ve achieved this goal a lot later in the program than I’d like, I managed to max out both my wife and I’s Roth IRA’s for 2009… in the nick of time.

With a kid romping around and daycare chewing up the extra cash, it will be much more difficult to fund all $10,000 for 2010, but I’m gonna try.

What bugs me now is that I’ve got money sitting on the sidelines.  It bugs me because I want it to be working for me, but I’m not sure where to put it to work.  I’m still overweight in a few stocks that I’m paring out of gradually, which is where a bulk of the idle money is coming from.

I’m still thinking interest rates are going to be on the rise, along with taxes…

Another subject I’d rather not think about now.

It’s been a long 12 months, but I’m back above water, both in my trading account and in my retirement accounts.  I really owe it all to my stellar strategy:

“One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do. Most people always have to be playing; they always have to be doing something. They make a big play and say, “Boy, I am smart, I just tripled my money.” Then they rush out and have to do something else with that money. They just can`t just sit there and wait for something new to develop.”  -Jim Rogers

Incompetence in Washington… abolish the Fed, abolish the Treasury… Yeah, that about sums it up.

Last week Cree (CREE: chart, web, Y!) reported their fiscal Q1 earnings that were well beyond Wall Street expectations.

Revenue came in at $169.1 million for the quarter which translates into 30 cents per share in earnings, beating The Street’s expectations of 22 cents per share.

For Q2, the company is expecting 28 to 30 cents per share (excluding special items) on revenue of $180 to $190 million.

Aside for being a short term boon on my Cree shares, I think this quarterly report reaffirms my position that Cree’s LED products will continue to do well in the market and have yet to see widespread uptake, but the market is starting to evolve and companies, including major cities are starting to see the cost-benefit of LED technology.

I’m continuing to buy Cree shares on pull backs and my average cost is starting to creep up to around $29 per share.

LED manufacturer, CREE (CREE: chart, web, Y!), is still looking strong, and I’ve been able to take advantage of some pull backs in the market since making my last purchase.

Recently, coverage was initiated at JP Morgan with an Overweight rating and $45 price target.  Additionally, CREE will be adding more than 500 jobs over the next three years as it expands production of light-emitting diode chips at its Durham, NC plant.

I’ll be looking to add more shares in my Roth IRA account on the next pull back in the stock, and I think $50 per share is a reasonable expectation for this growing company.  LED’s are just now becoming main stream, and the market will be expanding over the next 10 years.

So I’ve set a goal to contribute the maximum amount possible to Roth IRA’s for both my wife and I, totaling $10,000 a year.

Well, I’m happy to say that I’ve completed half of that goal, and my Wife’s Roth IRA is maxed out for 2009, and I only have another $1,500 to go for my own account.

For the most part, the money has been sitting in the account waiting for action, and with this tumultuous market it’s tough to say where it should be put to work.  The first few trading days of October have me a bit miffed, and I’m wondering if the downward slide in the market will continue.

The next few days will be very telling.

Last week I started buying Cree (CREE: chart, web, Y!), and in typical fashion the stock dropped (along with just about every other equity) $2 after my order filled.

So, what’s a guy to do but buy more?

Fundamentally nothing changed with the company, although they are well positioned to take advantage of whatever bogus “green” legislation the Obama Administration may conjure up (i.e. trying to make light bulbs sexy again).

A technical trader may suggest that I should have waited for the pending drop in the chart, but that’s really not my style.

I’ve started adding shares in increments of 10 to set a good average price, and will continue to watch the company develop and their products mature.

I wrote a few days ago about CREE (CREE: chart, web, Y!), a company that makes LED lighting components, including the lights themselves.

I feel that LED lights aren’t too far away from replacing incandescent and mercury containing CFL bulbs, and that products are already showing up on local store shelves, although prices have yet to come in at an economic range.

I’ve been perusing the companies 2008 annual report over the last couple days, and studied the financial numbers from the last several years.

Annual Revenue

As of the end of June, 2008, total revenues were on the rise to a level just shy of $500 million, with a 33.6% gross margin on revenues.

LED products (LED chips, components and lighting solutions) made up a total of 84% of total revenues, materials (SiC wafers, etc) made up just under 6% and power and RF products (power and RF switches) made up 4%.  The rest of the revenues came in the form of contracts with government agencies.

At the end of FY08, the company had $371 million in cash and marketable securities on hand and $408 million in working capital.

Diluted incomer per share was $0.36 at the end of FY08, which was down considerably from previous years, the high of which came in 2005 at $1.38 per share.

The company continued its streak of zero debt, a statistic maintained since as far back as 2004 or earlier.

The Most Recent Quarter

Naturally a lot has changed since the end of FY08 (nearly a year ago) and a FY09 report is due out in the next few months.

For Q3 ‘09, revenues of $131 million were 5% higher than the same quarter of 2008, but not surprisingly, down 11% compared to Q2 ‘09.

Operating cash flow for the third quarter came in at $49.9 million and the company generated $40.5 million of free cash flow.

The company built upon its cash reserves, increasing cash and investments to $404.9 million, and has maintained zero debt through the third quarter of fiscal 2009.

Recent News

On May 26th of this year, CREE announced that they are raising their financial targets for the fourth quarter of 2009, which is a pleasant headline to be reading in this economic environment.

The company says that the increase in targets is due to stronger LED component bookings for lighting-related applications such as laptops, displays, etc.

The company forecasts LED product sales to continue to grow into FY 2010 and will continue to spend money on R&D to make that forecast come true.

Corner Office Comments

I am more intrigued with this company the more I read.  The financial numbers look strong, and revenues have been maintained at healthy levels even in a down economy.  This could be a function of the company offering products that equate to energy savings with long product life cycles, making their products attractive to cities and municipalities (among other entities) trying to cut operating expenses when budgets are shrinking.

The zero debt is a major selling point, and the fact that the company has over $400 million in cash to work with makes the deal even sweeter.

I think this is a strong company with a promising product line.  They already market their LR6 downlight product that will replace 65 Watt flood-type recessed lights in your everyday residential application, and I suspect a replacement for traditional round incandescent bulbs is right around the corner.

I see prices coming down as LED lights gain traction in the market (LED’s have already replaced filament type Christmas lights) and CREE should be well positioned to take advantage of the next big technology shift in such a widely used market as home and business lighting applications.

The stock price has been fluctuating for the last several months, but the trend has been overwhelming positive since the beginning of 2009.

I’ll start buying some shares on the next downswing and I think the long term prospects for the stock is very promising.

It’s tough for me to say anything negative about my Verizon Wireless (VZ: chart, web, Y!) service.

It’s always available and it’s been years since I’ve had a dropped call.  It even worked in the Caribbean when I was there on business early last year; so there is something to be said for “the network”.

The only complaint I have is the cost of the service itself in relation to the features provided.  For $59.99 per month (plus the $20 in taxes and fees) I get 550 minutes between my wife and I.  As I’ve mentioned before, we don’t even come close to using those minutes.

I suppose you could say I’m eager to see how these down economic times will shape not just technology, but pricing in the very near future.

I’d love to have something like a Blackberry, and Verizon would practically give me a device for free.  But the $70+ service is really driving me away, and that doesn’t include the additional money for the traditional cell phone service for my wife.

In a fairly recent issue of BusinessWeek, the big three in wireless service here in the United States are seeing competition accelerate as buyers of pricey services and phones have tightened their belts.

The article mentioned that the battle is heating up in wireless data service, and the desire to grow the market while bringing down prices.  AT&T (VZ: chart, web, Y!) for instance has an 8.6% share in wireless data, compared to 16.4% for Sprint (S: chart, web, Y!) and Verizon’s 10.9%.

Verizon tends to be a bit hamstrung by 45% stakeholder Vodafone (VOD: chart, web, Y!)  (popular in Europe) and Sprint has been facing a recurring challenge in attracting and retaining customers.  Service has been spotty, customer support lacking, and product lines have been thin.

AT&T on the other hand holds a 100% stake in wireless and has its fingers in a lot of different telecom markets (a la AT&T UVerse).  They’ve got a decent amount of cash and low capital requirements to maintain their infrastructure.

The Apple (AAPL: chart, web, Y!)  iPhone has almost reached cult status, and I have to admit, I’m not much of an Apple guy, but I love the idea of an iPhone (again, besides the service price) and own a iPod.

I’m going to continue watching how the AT&T vs. Verizon vs. Sprint battle plays out, but I think if prices start coming down and consumer spending starts going up, it may be worth buying some shares of AT&T.

I’ve been watching Ford (F: chart, web, Y!) stock fairly closely the last couple days after the company announced it would offer up 300 million shares at $4.75 a piece on Monday in an effort to shore up capital for it’s union-run healthcare fund.

This is surely the pull back I’ve been waiting for, just not the reason.  In this environment it’s far better, in my opinion, to go to the shareholders for liquidity than the Federal Government.

Shares dropped below the $4.75 offering price only briefly today before closing out at $4.96.  I suspect more downside in the next few days as more pressure is applied by overall market sentiment.  I’ll put my finger back on the trigger at $4.50 if the trend dictates.  This is the first flinch we’ve seen from the “best of the worst” in quite some time, and it will be interesting to see how the markets react in the next several days.

Long term, I still like Ford, but am not willing to buy and hold.

Provident Energy (PVX: chart, web, Y!) released financials for Q1 this past Thursday, and noted that they would keep the distribution at $0.06 CDN for the coming month.

Some highlights for the quarter:

- Unitholder distributions in the first quarter of 2009 were $0.21 per unit resulting in a payout ratio of 65 percent, compared to the 70 percent payout in the first quarter of 2008 when Provident distributed $0.36 per unit.

- Provident maintained its financial flexibility during the first quarter with senior bank debt of $496 million (47 percent credit facility utilization), while total net debt was $749 million (including subordinated convertible debentures and net working capital), resulting in a net debt to trailing four quarters funds flow from continuing operations ratio of 1.6 times.

- Provident Midstream sold approximately 141,700 barrels per day (bpd) of natural gas liquids (NGL) in the first quarter of 2009, an increase of 4 percent from approximately 136,300 bpd in the first quarter of 2008 due primarily to the growing demand for condensate in the Redwater West business.

- Provident Midstream generated earnings before interest, taxes, depletion, depreciation, accretion and other non-cash items (EBITDA) of $70 million in the first quarter of 2009, down 8 percent from $76 million in the first quarter of 2008 due to lower NGL sale prices partially offset by lower feedstock prices, higher sales volumes and an $11 million realized gain from the commodity price risk management program.

- Provident Upstream produced approximately 24,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in the first quarter of 2009, down 11 percent from 27,600 boed in the first quarter of 2008 due to naturally occurring production declines and the impact of the reduced 2009 capital program with spending focused on long term initiatives.

- Provident Upstream generated funds flow from operations of $23 million, down 68 percent from $71 million in the same quarter of 2008. This decline is due to lower production volumes and lower field operating netbacks (reflecting a substantial drop in oil and natural gas prices), partially offset by a $9 million realized gain from the commodity price risk management program.  -Source

On the downside, funds flow from operations was down 35% compared to Q1 of 2008.  Naturally, commodity prices have a lot to do with that, so it’s not necessarily indicative of faltering company strategy.

Corner Office Comments

I’m fairly pleased with the results of the first quarter operations, and I think natural gas prices, along with crude will start to strengthen into the summer, bolstering these numbers a bit more.

The payout ratio is starting to come back down a bit, which in this environment isn’t a bad thing.  The distribution cut is frustrating, but it’s one you’d have to expect when commodities are on the lamb.

The share price is starting to head back up hill, and I’ve started buying more shares below $6 to help average my overall cost down.  As the price continues to rise, I’ll sell off some shares in an effort to diversify out of the energy sector.

Ford (F: chart, web, Y!) is still climbing… without me.   The guy who was going to hold Ford stock for the long run because I believed in their potential, and being the best of the worst cashed in early and left 200% on the table.

I keep waiting for a pull back, and setting my purchase point just below any intraday declines.

Oh well, I suppose it’s better to wish you had bought the stock than wish you hadn’t.

I really don’t know what my strategy is on Ford any more, as it’s blown through any level I thought was a rational top.

I wrote yesterday about my Ford (F: chart, web, Y!) strategy; $3/share was the target while looking to capitalize on the pull back in overall market conditions on Monday.

No dice.

Ford never hit my price target, and it’s swung up by nearly $1 per share through the first two hours of trading today.

Goldman upgraded Ford this morning, noting that the company is best positioned to capitalize on the restructuring of the auto industry.  I concur, but I’m still concerned about the unintended consequences of restructured contracts in bankruptcy at GM forcing Ford’s hand to remain in line with wages and expenses.

Goldman sees a near term price target of $6/share, and I think that’s reasonable.

It’s clear, looking at the volume that many people took this opportunity to jump in.  I’ll continue to wait, although I will revise my buy target slightly as it’s clear that the major players are starting to notice Ford’s relative health compared to its competitors.

Stick a fork in ‘em, Lenny’s done.  The former pro ball player turned self proclaimed Wall Street guru Lenny Dykstra is flat out of money.  Broke.  Penniless.

His 6 bedroom, 7 bath California mansion is up on the auction block, and the New York Times suggests that this is just the tip of the iceberg.  Dykstra’s Gulfstream II has been repo’d after the former infielder failed to pay a $228k bill for a new interior and electronic cabin entertainment system.

What’s ironic about all this is that Dykstra’s been touting his “gains” for the last several years on TheStreet.com and other financial blogs.  In fact, after reading his articles, you’d think Dykstra was the only one making money in the market over the last 12 months.

Countless pundits, Jim Cramer among them, have noted how dead-on accurate Lenny Dykstra’s been with his deep-in-the-money calls. One reason, says Cramer, “Lenny brings the same intensity, skill and aggressiveness to options trading as he did to baseball. Lenny is rapidly becoming one of the great ones.” -Source

What’s amazing is that Dykstra is still giving investment advice, for a price, on TheStreet.com.

For a mere $995 per year, you can get Lenny to tell you how to go broke, just like he did!

Of course, if you’re a pro athlete worried about your financial life after sports, Lenny can show you how to manage your money, just like he does through his Players Club Magazine.

Just goes to show, be careful who you take investment advice from.

So I missed my opportunity to buy back into Ford (F: chart, web, Y!) last week, as the intraday price dropped below my $2.50 target twice, but never closed below that value.  The stock has since traded up significantly and closed the week at $3.25 per share.

I’m still interested in trading Ford, and still have a bullish stance on the long term prospects.

That said, there will be some significant hurdles the company must contend with, many of which are out of the companies control.  The potential bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler may weigh negatively on the company, as labor contracts are forcibly renegotiated along with vendor agreements.  All of which will place competitive pressure on Ford who’s managed to keep their hands out of the government cookie jar, and bankruptcy to boot.

I had a deep thought today while sitting in a meeting that I really didn’t need to attend in the first place:

If the United States (the entire country, good, bad and ugly) were a publicly traded stock, would you invest in the stock?

Think of it like this:  President Obama is the CEO, Joe Biden the Vice President, Geithner and Bernanke would be co-CFO’s, and we the people are the employees of the company.  You could lump a number of the other players into a “Human Resources” category.

In terms of a financial analysis, you’d look at the assets the county holds, the liabilities it has including the paper debt, etc…

So a new poll, if the U.S. were a stock do you buy or sell the ticker?

I cashed in my Ford (F: chart, web, Y!) shares today for a nice 40% gain.  I probably left some money on the table considering the new details of the Treasury’s plan for bad banks, but I had that uneasy feeling that the latest gains from the only well positioned U.S. car maker may have run their course.  For now.

I still feel strongly about Ford’s potential and it could very well be the sole survivor out of the Big Three, Alan Mulally has buy-in from the union and is mounting a strong effort to buy back debt.

I’ll continue to watch the stock and will get back in after a modest pull-back, whenever that happens to be.  Right now I’m looking at the $2.50 range for another trade.