A few events to remember for next week:

Goldman Sachs reports earnings – March 18th, 8:30am
Goldman Sachs finished out 2007 in good shape with shares exceeding analysts predictions. However, Goldman’s true isolation from mortgage backed securities will be revealed in earnings for the next several quarters. With the bail out of Bear Stearns, I’m sure the street will be on pins and needles to see how well Goldman is fairing in this volatile market place.

Federal Open Market Committee meeting – March 18th, 9:00am .
Traders in interest rate futures have a 3/4% cut in the fed funds rate in mind and increasing evidence that the U.S. economy may be facing a recession will help stimulate that speculation. Is it just coincidence that the meeting is taking place just after Goldman reports earnings? Probably.

Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley report earnings – March 20th 8:30am
This isn’t going to be pretty. We already know Bear Stearns ran out of liquidity, and now we’ll see the numbers to back it up. On top of that, we’ll see how wide spread the problem is when Morgan Stanley posts earnings as well. I suspect Thursday will be a rough day.

We’re going to get a glimpse this week into how bad the health of the finance sector really is. I’m predicting another rate cut on the order of a half point, as I think the effects of interest rate cuts are going to be fairly limited for the next few months. The idea is to drive money back into the market, but with the stock market so volatile right now, that idea isn’t really bearing fruit.

I still say the Fed should leave rates alone and let this financial debacle we’re in run its course, let the smoke clear and then see how low rates need to go to stimulate the economy.

Banking, Credit, Economics, Finance, Market Trends BSC, Fed rate cut, FOMC, GS

Your credit health may start going south, and it may not be your fault.

Currently, your FICO score is the long standing gauge on risk when it comes to lending money. Some are saying that the FICO financial thermometer may be due for calibration, all thanks to the current credit crunch, backed up by the mortgage epidemic.

Analyst Meredith Whitney, on the notion that more people have taken on “more house”, says that a loan-to-value (LTV) may be a more appropriate way to measure financial risk when it comes to lending money. Lenders who have put too much weight into credit scores when it came time to underwrite loans may be taking the most heat when it comes to resolving non-payment for mortgages.

“We believe LTV analysis will prove far more predictive of not just loss frequency, but more importantly of loss severity,” she said, noting that she believes investors have underestimated the severity of the current credit cycle, “as we expect losses to be far worse than in any period in U.S. history. -Source

As I see it, there are a ton of people out there with high credit scores but little collateral to back up a loan. Those 30-somethings with little debt, high credit scores, but little collateral are the target audience when it comes to being in over their head as a result of ARM’s resetting.

What do you think, is your credit score the most accurate measure of your financial risk?

Credit, Finance credit score, FICO, LTV

Well it appears that the effects of our credit crunch are starting to show up in non-essential services.

Sprint is losing subscribers. Big time. Sprint lost 337,000 post-paid subscribers, or customers who sign annual contracts and pay monthly bills. Total subscribership fell 60,000 from the second quarter to 54 million. The competition, however is doing better. AT&T and Verizon Wireless added two million and 1.6 million net subscribers, respectively. Furthermore, Sprint expects subscriber losses to continue into the fourth quarter.

It seems that Sprint’s troubles stem from its reliance on customers with poor credit, the cellphone industry’s version of the subprime-mortgage market. The same kinds of people who now are having trouble paying their mortgages on time also are having trouble paying cellphone bills.

It’s fun to see the market forces work like they’re supposed to! Unless of course you hold Sprint shares, in which case you’re getting a lesson in market finance and economics.

Credit, Economics, Finance cell phone, Economics, market forces, sprint, subscribers