There have been a number of wild rides through bubbles in the last decade or so.  There was the dot-com bubble that closed out the 90’s and welcomed in the new millennium.  Then there was the financial bubble, the credit bubble, the housing bubble…

Arguably many of those are inter-related, and chances are, you were affected by at least one of them.

So where is the next bubble?

First, I’ve come to accept the fact that history will repeat itself.  We are all poor students of history, but deeper, no one can really understand all the forces at play to effectively stave off a repeat of a certain event.

With that, it’s realistic to assume there is another bubble brewing as we speak.

With all the government intervention in finances, and the U.S. Fed’s “as low as we can go” interest rate policy, I suspect the next bubble will be in interest rates.

If there is one thing that history tells us, and it seems those in power never seem to study enough, is that the Fed is notoriously late when it comes time to act on monetary policy.

Most recently, Fed Chairman Greenspan was slow to lower interest rates which kept borrowing at bay when borrowing was most needed.  To that tone, I suspect Fed Chairman Bernanke will be slow to raise interest rates in an effort to keep inflation at bay.

Since any sort of monetary policy is based on lagging economic data (by 3 months or so), it’s understandable why interest rate moves also suffer from the same lag.  Historically though, interest rate moves have been late to the game by as much as 8 and arguably 10 months.

In the end, I suspect Bernanke will delay raising interest rates until late next year, and he’ll be forced to raise them to levels he’d not anticipated to keep the wraps on inflation.

So what makes this the Mother Of All Bubbles?

In one word, China.

Unlike the past, the Chinese are taking a great interest in our monetary policy, primarily because they own so much of our debt and currency.  To say the Chinese aren’t really happy with how things are going would be an understatement.

The Fed wants to keep rates low for fears that increasing rates will hamper an economic recovery.  But the Chinese have more leverage in our debt than they do in our unemployment rate.  They’re really looking out for their own financial interests, and who can blame them.

The Chinese are worried that the current U.S. policy is creating insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy, and they’re worried we’ll bring them down with us.

Any freshman in a college history course knows that the Chinese will do just about anything to keep their economic freight train steaming down the tracks, and they’re not real happy about the prospect of U.S. monetary derailing that train.

They own a lot of U.S. debt, and they’re not afraid to use that debt to influence policy in the States.  Higher interest rates will appease them as it will increase the value in their holdings.  It’s only a matter of time before Bernanke will have to oblige.

Higher interest rates is what they’re looking for, and higher rates they will get.

I suspect that interest rates will be late to go up, and will go higher and stay higher for longer than they need to.   All in the name of keeping the Chinese at bay.

So long Emigrant Direct, it’s been nice.

I began pulling all my money out of Emigrant Direct and Dollar Savings Direct (effectively one in the same).  I rode the eroding interest rates down hill, although their current rates are still slightly better than I can get just about anywhere else.

The real deterrent was the fact that I couldn’t add my new USAA Savings account as an approved funding account without filling out paper work and sending in a voided check.

In my opinion there is no reason for this.  I was able to set up my Bank of America funding account electronically with no hassles other than waiting for verification of the account.  To require paper forms and a voided check for additional accounts seems illogical and unnecessary.

So I’ve pulled all the money out of both accounts and will dump it back into my USAA savings.  From there I may move it around to take advantage of increasing interest rates in the future, or may buy some short term CD’s.

So I’ve decided to move all my banking to USAA from Bank of America.  The fact that the big BOA still needs money from good old Uncle Sam doesn’t instill confidence in this customer.

So I set up a checking account and several different savings accounts at USAA to replicate the banking structure I had at BoA, and signed up for their USAA World Mastercard as well with the Total Rewards program.  My existing card is held through Citi, who happens to also need another boatload of cash to continue its business.  Since I don’t keep a balance on any of my cards, there’s really nothing to transfer, and I just need to change all of my automatic payments over to the new card.

I’ll probably continue to keep the Citi card active just in case, but I don’t anticipate using it.

No more going to the bank for me!

The other cool thing about USAA banking is the Deposit@Home feature, where you simply scan your deposits directly from your scanner via a Java applet on the website.  The funds are deposited directly to your account and are available immediately.  Kind of cool, and despite the a slight hiccup at first with the Java program, the system works pretty well.

The rewards program is a little different.

As for the rewards program with the Total Rewards card, there are a few differences compared to my Citi Dividend Platinum card.  The first being that you earn one point for every dollar you spend on the card, and one point for every two dollars you spend on your USAA debit card.  You can redeem these points for merchandise, gift cards, charitable contributions, or my favorite, cold hard cash.

With the Citi card, we had a limit of $300 in dividends per year, and by charging all our utilities to that card, plus everyday purchases, we achieved that $300 limit fairly quickly.

The USAA Total Rewards card doesn’t have such a limit, however the program isn’t quite as lucrative as the Citi program.  The Total Rewards program breaks down the rewards in a tiered fashion where you get more cash back the more you spend.  For instance, the first 20,000 points only returns you 0.83% in cash, but after that, you earn 1% cash back.  So the key is to wait until you have accrued more than 20,000 points to redeem for cash back.

My mortgage refinance, three months in the making, is finally a done deal.  Nearly 35 autographs, 18 pages initialed by both my wife and I, 3 lbs of paper, and a half hour out of our work day later and the 4.625% rate is a reality.

This cuts our monthly principle and interest by $250 per month, or about $3,000 annually.

I’ve always been under the impression that USAA was an insurance company, even though I’ve been bombarded with literature that says otherwise.  I hold my car insurance, primary residence insurance, and now even my rental property insurance is held with USAA, as they’ve been the low-cost provider for all of those.

Yesterday though, I noticed a coworker paid his lunch bill with a USAA branded credit card, and further discussion revealed that he does all of his banking with USAA as well.

Naturally, one would question how you deposit a check to a bank with no physical presence.  And why would you want to incur ATM fees while being forced to use a competitors ATM?  And how do they stack up to my existing bank, Bank of America?

Scan your deposits in… from home.

I’ve noticed over the past several years that the only reason I go to Bank of America is to deposit checks, and make the occasional cash withdrawal.  Honestly, I can’t remember the last time I set foot in the bank itself.  So naturally, I had to wonder how one would go about making a deposit to a purely online bank that is more convenient than driving down the street.  The answer lies in my desktop scanner.

With USAA’s Deposit@Home system, you simply log in to your account and scan in the check to be deposited using your own scanner.  The deposit is immediately credited to your account, and you simply void the check after completing the deposit.

Pretty cool if you ask me.

ATM fees are reimbursed.

Assuming a USAA banking customer would have to absorb the ATM fees of a local bank, since USAA doesn’t have a system of their own ATM’s would only be partially correct.  Yes, you’ll incur some ATM fees, but those fees are actually reimbursed by USAA for the first 10 ATM withdrawals per month, up to a total of $15.   So you can use the most convenient ATM without worrying about the $2.00 transaction fee you’re slapped with.

Some other perks?

USAA offers free checks, interest for checking accounts, credit and debit card rewards programs (with no annual fee), free online bill pay, and no monthly service fees.  They also offer a host of savings options, certificate of deposit (CD) options, and some cool banking options for kids (like a prepaid cash card with parental control).

So where’s the drawback?

At this point the only drawback I’ve found is that they don’t have a physical presence, which should be obvious.  But this one drawback does mean that you won’t have access to a safety deposit box with USAA banking.

Currently, we receive a free safety deposit box at Bank of America since we have a number of accounts with them.  Switching to USAA exclusively would eliminate that option, and we’d need to pay for a safety deposit box.

Beyond that, the issue of convenience has been solved.

I’ll investigate further, but I like what I see.

I’d like to say that today’s market response to the Tim Geithner press conference was a surprise, but I can’t.  I’d also like to say that I say it coming, but I can’t.

Geithner revealed few details about what will essentially become federal bailout round two.  The biggest detail he did reveal however was that it was going to cost another $1.5 trillion, spending $500 billion to recapitalize banks and the other trillion to support consumer and business lending.

His words didn’t even make it from his lips to the microphone and the market took a plunge.

I watched gold (GLD: chart, web, Y!) skyrocket while nearly everything else went directly to red.  Didn’t even turn pink first.

So I picked up some GLD at $90 under the notion that inflation will surely rise with the influx of all this money, and equities will suffer accordingly.

To take a page out of the Winston playbook, I’m going long on gold as a hedge against my equities.

If only I could get crude to follow in its golden commodities footsteps.

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I didn’t figure the great rate would last long, but I’m disappointed nonetheless that Dollar Savings Direct has lowered their online savings account interest rate from 4% to 3.5%.

Still a leader in the online savings account game, I can’t be too disappointed; they still beat Emigrant Direct by more than a full point (Emigrant Direct is still sitting at 2.4%), and I pretty much have to pay Bank of America (or is it America’s Bank now?) to hold my money.

I’ll sit and wait for the time being.  My money is FDIC insured, the interest rate is very competitive, and the setup and administration has been trouble free.

Somehow I suspect the rate drops are not done yet, and we’ll continue to see interest rates fall for the next 8 to 12 months.  I hope I’m wrong.

Among the online, high yield savings accounts, there are still a few that pay a respectable rate.

Bank of Internet still has a 3.51% rate with no fees and a $100 minimum deposit.  FDIC insured of course.

Chesapeake Banks Clear Sky Accounts still offers a 3.75% APY, however the interest compounds monthly instead of daily.

Many others are sitting at or below 3%, including HSBC Direct, FNBO Direct, and ING Direct.

Needless to say, I’ve been disappointed with the direction the interest rate is going on my Emigrant Direct account.  Not that I don’t understand why is going down, I’m just disappointed every time I see it drop another quarter point.  With last weeks drop from 2.75% to 2.5%, I figured I better start looking for alternatives.

I didn’t have to look far.  DollarSavingsDirect.com is another offshoot of Emigrant Bank, much like EmigrantDirect.com.  However, the rate at Dollar Savings Direct is a bit healthier at 4% (although I expect it too to start dropping).

I have a feeling this spinoff is an effort by Emigrant Bank to attract new customers without having to pay existing customers a higher interest rate, although there is nothing keeping you from transferring all your funds from Emigrant Direct to Dollar Savings Direct.

The website template looks the same, the interface is the same, the application process is the same… the only difference is that at Dollar Savings Direct there is a minimum balance requirement of $1,000 compared to no minimum at Emigrant Direct.

I’m not one to jump in the deep end without testing the water temperature first, so I’ve opened an account and deposited the minimum amount required to see how the process pans out.

If all looks good, I’ll start making Dollar Savings Direct the place to stash cash.

About a week ago, out of the blue, I had this feeling I should call my bank and find out what the current refinance rates were.  Rates had been coming down, and with all the money being thrown around in the financial sector these days, I figured it couldn’t hurt to ask.

After about 5 minutes on the phone with a Wachovia representative, he informed me that an FHA loan with decent credit would refinance at 4.875%.  A Far cry from my current 6.66% rate!

Not bad, but I don’t want an FHA loan.

So after listening to the schpeal about the FHA loan, I asked him to tell me what the refinance rate was for a 30-year conventional loan.

“Well, if you have excellent credit, and the appraisal comes back with at least a 80% LTV, I can do 4.625%.”

Right… so how much will that cost me?

After asking him to repeat the number he just gave me, I then started digging for the catch.  You know, the gotcha on a heck of a good deal that they don’t tell you about until just before you sign on the dotted line.

“It looks like it will cost $1,900 for closing costs and fee’s, but we’ll pay them.”

Honestly, I thought I was being Punk’d.

I figured what he meant was that he’d wrap the closing costs back into the loan.  Nope.  The bank will actually pay the closing costs and associated fees (appraisal, title, etc).

Not wanting to look a gift horse in the mouth, I asked him to send me an application, with the rate locked in at 4.625%.

UPS next day air and it was on my desk.

After reading through all 60 pages of the application (I actually read it twice, still looking for the catch), I sat down with my wife and went over it.  Nothing seemed out of line, and I am able to withdraw my application at any time.

At any rate, it’s a good time to call your bank.  I don’t care what your current mortgage rate is at, it’s still worth the phone call!

Yesterday the appraiser stopped by and took measurements for the appraisal.  I’m crossing my fingers that I’m still at my 80% LTV, and that local market prices haven’t dropped that much.

The finger pointing continues.  The House rejected the effort to “stimulate” the financial sector with $700 billion, and all we hear on the talking heads show is how the Democrats are single handily killing off the economy, or how the Bush administration is responsible for all this mess.  Phooey.

This whole thing started snowballing well before Bush took office, and the proof is out there on the internet, if you just care to look.  For instance, an article from 1999 in the New York Times on how Fannie Mae was being pressured to offer easy credit to increase lending… by who?  None other than the Clinton administration:

In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.

The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets — including the New York metropolitan region — will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring.

Fannie Mae, the nation’s biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits. -Source

And you can’t tell me we didn’t see this coming. It was seen coming back when this little fiasco was conceived.

In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980’s. -Source

And the result?  Yeah, the writing was on the wall, all the way back in 1999.

”From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,” said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ”If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.” -Source

So, here is how this all really went down.  This mess was started by the Clinton administration.  The Bush administration inherited what would become the biggest financial mess in recent history, the Republican congress sat through the good times, and the Democrats jumped into the majority just before the fall out.  And now everyone is blaming everyone else, and nothing has been accomplished to fix anything.

Well, I shouldn’t say that.  The fact that our government isn’t accomplishing anything, is actually accomplishing what needs to be done: Nothing.  Let the banks fail.  Let those who lose liquidity suffer from the loss of liquidity.  And don’t spend my hard earned money trying to “fix” anything.  The markets are taking care of themselves in my opinion, and while it’s going to stink for a while, keeping the government hand out of the free market cookie jar will get things squared away all the more quickly.

Just because Americans have the right to own a home of their own, does not mean that they should all have the ability.

The Clinton administrations exercise in socialism failed.  Perhaps we should give capitalism a shot again…

A few events to remember for next week:

Goldman Sachs reports earnings – March 18th, 8:30am
Goldman Sachs finished out 2007 in good shape with shares exceeding analysts predictions. However, Goldman’s true isolation from mortgage backed securities will be revealed in earnings for the next several quarters. With the bail out of Bear Stearns, I’m sure the street will be on pins and needles to see how well Goldman is fairing in this volatile market place.

Federal Open Market Committee meeting – March 18th, 9:00am .
Traders in interest rate futures have a 3/4% cut in the fed funds rate in mind and increasing evidence that the U.S. economy may be facing a recession will help stimulate that speculation. Is it just coincidence that the meeting is taking place just after Goldman reports earnings? Probably.

Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley report earnings – March 20th 8:30am
This isn’t going to be pretty. We already know Bear Stearns ran out of liquidity, and now we’ll see the numbers to back it up. On top of that, we’ll see how wide spread the problem is when Morgan Stanley posts earnings as well. I suspect Thursday will be a rough day.

We’re going to get a glimpse this week into how bad the health of the finance sector really is. I’m predicting another rate cut on the order of a half point, as I think the effects of interest rate cuts are going to be fairly limited for the next few months. The idea is to drive money back into the market, but with the stock market so volatile right now, that idea isn’t really bearing fruit.

I still say the Fed should leave rates alone and let this financial debacle we’re in run its course, let the smoke clear and then see how low rates need to go to stimulate the economy.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS: chart, web, Y!) is in the business of providing investment banking, and investment management services, primarily to corporations and financial institutions.

Goldman has been one of the few big investment banking and financial services firms that has actually held up well through the the fallout of the credit crisis and the housing slump. It’s low involvement in small residential mortgages and favorable short trades among the rest of the sector has worked in its favor.

The black sheep mentality compared to the rest of the sector has held the stock price around $200, and it even saw $250 per share back at the end of October.

Is the other shoe about to fall?

Goldman has insulated itself against residential mortgage problems, but it does have some hefty exposure to corporate debt; a topic that has yet to make its way into the headlines, but fear it will has dragged GS down considerably.

Goldman has been on the receiving end of some critical analyst reports during the last week, all conveying the fear that the company will miss earnings in mid March.

Analyst Jeff Harte of Sandler O’Neill said Goldman’s share price will likely be hit harder than its competitors’ since it has been trading at a “considerable premium over peers for the firm’s apparent ability to outperform in a difficult environment.”

The day before, Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo said he expected Goldman to bring in only $2.63 per share in the first quarter, down from $4.64 per share. He expects Goldman to take a nearly $3.5 billion writedown due to leverage loans and other investments.

Earlier this month, Meredith Whitney of Oppenheimer downgraded Goldman to perform, from outperform, citing the 40% premium its shares were trading at compared with its peers. -Source

The earliest downgrade by Meredith Whitney requires some clarification however:

“Goldman’s franchise remains well ahead of its peers with respect to market share but most importantly execution, and none of that has changed, in our opinion,” she writes. “We simply believe there is more probability of multiple contraction than multiple expansion in the current environment of weak/low margin capital market conditions.” -Source

I tend to agree with her. Goldman is probably the smartest and most savvy of the big boys on Wall Street. They’ve avoided the most volatile hot spots in the financial sector, and bet against their peers when thing really went south in the credit sector.

I’m looking to pick up some Goldman Sachs, but I think I’ll have to wait till it finds a bottom. I agree with Ms. Whitney that the premium in price has put a target on the companies back, and the reaction to any speculative bad news will be grounds for over reaction.

It will be interesting to see how the stock fairs after earnings, and I think we’ll gain some insight into whether the second shoe representing corporate credit problems will bear the weight of a work boot or a flimsy flip-flop.

How well will Goldman weather the second front in the credit storm?

Does GS make for a good buy here?

As expected, Emigrant Direct has followed suit on lowering interest rates for its online American Dream Savings Account to 4.30%.  I can’t say that I didn’t see this coming, but the dropping rates are driving me to start maneuvering money back into the stock market.

I’m starting to rethink my goal of having $50,000 in the account to generate some secure passive income.  While it’s still a good goal to have, the money I have allocated for that account may work harder elsewhere, like in high yield ETF’s.

I’ve already got the mandatory 6 months worth of expenses stored up in savings, and am now strategizing on how to put my money to work.

What do you think? Is Emigrant Direct still a good place to store savings?

Emigrant Direct has preempted any fed rate cut Bernanke could throw at us. Within the last couple of days, Emigrant bank has cut their online savings rate to 4.55%. Still better than I can get at Bank of America, but it’s making online savings accounts look less appetizing when compared to Canadian Royalty Trusts.

Sure, the money is guaranteed at Emigrant, so it’s still a great place to stash emergency funds, but the dropping rate could offset some of the risk in investing in stocks.

Question for the day: At what percentage rate do you quit stashing free cash in the savings account and contribute it to a online trading account?

The last I checked, RYPQX was still paying just shy of a 5% return.

I called my banker yesterday after I started thinking about how I was going to finance another rental property. When I call this guy my banker, he IS the bank, as in, he OWNS the bank. A good guy to know, indeed!

One of the benefits to doing business with a small town bank is that you know the bank and they know you. There is no pre-approval as long as your logic is sound and the margin is wide. If you have the cash flow to support the investment, they’ll lend you the money.

So the conversation with the banker (Bruce) went like this:

Me: Hey Bruce, I’m looking at acquiring some more rental property, would you be interested in writing the loan?

Bruce: Absolutely, what are you looking at?

Me: Well, there is a property two blocks North of the one I already own that’s owned by a bank, and they are desperate to get out. It’s come down thirty grand in the last three months.

Bruce: How much money do you need?

Me: They are asking $59,900 but I think I can do better than that.

Bruce: Sounds good. Just write the check or whatever you need to do, give me a call and I’ll make sure the money is there to cover the deal.

Man do I love doing business with a small-town bank. You’d never have a conversation like that with Bank of America!

It was only a matter of time I suppose. Emigrant Direct dropped their rate to 4.65%, down from 4.75%. To be honest, it wasn’t nearly as large of a cut as I was expecting considering how much the Fed has dropped rates lately.

Emigrant Direct’s rate is still higher than the best Bank of America has offered me, so the decision on where to stash my emergency fund cash is really a no-brainer.

I decided I needed a new savings goal. I mean cash, cold hard cash.

I already contribute the allowable amount to both my wife and I’s Roth IRA, and we both get the full matching contribution to our employers retirement plans. The problem is, that money is slated to be used in 30 years or more.

Some people call this an emergency fund. I already have one of those too.

I’m looking for a non-committed cash reserve. Something that will make me a solid 4-5% return in an Emigrant Direct account, and that will provide some completely passive “luxury” money, or “Mad Money” as my wife calls it.

So how much do I want? Ideally, I’d like to have an extra couple hundred bucks a month that I can not feel guilty about spending. As such, I’d need about $50,000 in an online savings account making 4.5% or so to return that figure monthly. So that’s the goal.

$50,000 in cash in the Emigrant Direct account that will just sit there. It will generate about $200 per month passively, that I won’t feel guilty about spending.

So there you have it. There it is. In the right hand column is the measure of how close I am to this goal. I figure it might take me another year or so to get there from my current $19,000 mark, but I think it will be worth it.

Anyone else have a “Mad Money” fund?

I’m slowly buying in to the paperless world. I’ve converted several of my various accounts and utilities to electronic statements.

I’ve been slow to adapt to this concept, as I’ve always been a fan of paper records. I’ve got all my statements sorted out by year going back to who knows when, even for accounts that have long been closed.

However, over the past month or so, I’ve noticed that I really don’t even look at them any more. For my bank accounts, I generally review my ledger online if not every day, then every other day. If there’s a discrepancy, I know about it when it happens, and not when the next statement shows up.

So while the statements stack up, waiting to be filed away in folders that I’ll probably never go through again, I’m no longer automatically deleting the email requests for customers to convert their paper statements to electron statements.

The Upside

The upside to this is that it will free up room for other things in the house. I can file the existing paper statements away in an a file cabinet, and move my “To Be Filed” tray to a more conspicuous location.

The Downside

The downside to this move is that everything will be electronic. So now I have to think about encryption and security, and how to preserve the data for the minimum amount of time. I’ve got to figure out a way to deal with a hard drive crash, which means the data will periodically have to be backed up on a DVD, then where do you safely store the DVD?

There are a whole host of questions that have to be answered.

My biggest gripe with converting to electronic statements is that you have to log in to the various accounts and download the statements each month. They send you a friendly email indicating the statement is ready, but if you really want it, you’ll have to dig up your password to our site, log in and download the statement.

I would much prefer if they just emailed you the PDF copy of the statement each and every month.

Right click, save, and you’re done…

Has anyone else gone paperless?

It comes as no surprise that EmigrantDirect has lowered it’s American Dream Savings account interest rate to 4.75%. A 0.3% reduction in the APY.

It’s one of the adverse effects of Mr. Bernanke lowering the fed funds rate (of which I believe he overdid), and makes the stock market look more attractive to investors at a time where savings needs to be promoted.

Of course, you can’t have your cake and eat it too…

At 4.75%, EmigrantDirect still beats my Bank of America money market account, so it’s still the place I go to stash cash for a rainy day.

I got a statement in the mail today from Bank of America indicating I have made too many withdrawals from a money market account.

I am allowed 6 transfers out of the account, of which only three may be made by check, draft, or CheckCard. Evidently, when I set up my Emigrant Direct account, the account verification process made two individual withdrawals to remove the verification deposits from the account.

So now I will get dinged $10 for each additional withdrawal I make from the account.

The way I see it, Bank of America doesn’t pay enough interest to keep money with them, let alone let them charge me for removing my money from their accounts.

So the plan is to convert the money market account to a regular checking account, their 0.5% interest be damned!

My money will work harder for me in the Emigrant Direct account anyway.

Bank of America is good for their online bill payment feature, but little else. After looking through the Sunday financial section of the newspaper, I found that Bank of America had the lowest money market interest rates in the area, and the highest loan and mortgage rates in the area as well.

I guess they don’t need my money that bad!