Archive for March, 2008

The truth will set Mother Nature free

Tuesday, March 18th, 2008

Interesting commentary in the Washington Times on Saturday. It seems a few “facts” are surfacing about the research conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on global warming.

Contributor Sterling Burnett is a senior fellow with the National Center for Policy Analysis (a nonpartisan, nonprofit research institute in Dallas) and made some interesting points about the IPCC’s “study of climate change”. I’ll print a few of those points here, but I encourage you to read the full article here.

In a 2001 report, the IPCC published an image commonly referred to as the “hockey stick.” This graph showed relatively stable temperatures from A.D. 1000 to 1900, with temperatures …


BUY BUY BUY! Yeah right.

Monday, March 17th, 2008

Jim Cramer is losing credibility… hand over fist!

Final word? Sorry. Yeah, that about sums it up.


What a weekend!

Sunday, March 16th, 2008

It has become clearly evident that the Fed works weekends.

Last night the Fed announced an emergency quarter point discount rate cut to 3.25%, and on top of that, offered to lend money to a longer list of firms than ever before.

The rare weekend move came as J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: chart, web, Y!) sealed a deal to buy Bear Stearns (BSC: chart, web, Y!) for just $2 a share backed by up to $30 billion borrowed from the Fed. The Fed board gave its approval to that unique funding arrangement, which guarantees JP Morgan against …


Next Week on the Street

Sunday, March 16th, 2008

A few events to remember for next week:

Goldman Sachs reports earnings - March 18th, 8:30am
Goldman Sachs finished out 2007 in good shape with shares exceeding analysts predictions. However, Goldman’s true isolation from mortgage backed securities will be revealed in earnings for the next several quarters. With the bail out of Bear Stearns, I’m sure the street will be on pins and needles to see how well Goldman is fairing in this volatile market place.

Federal Open Market Committee meeting - March 18th, 9:00am .
Traders in interest rate futures have a 3/4% cut in the fed funds rate in mind and increasing evidence that the U.S. economy may be …


The numbers are in… and it’s not pretty.

Sunday, March 16th, 2008

I just got my 2007 taxes back from the accountant. It’s bad. It’s really bad.

All in all, my 2007 tax obligation, including preparation fees, comes to just under $5,000 (of that the preparation costs were only $800 including the oil companies preparation costs).

I talked with the accountant last week, and after digging up my file, he told me the bottom line. After I scooped my jaw up off the floor, my next statement went something like this: “well, um, is there any way to lower that number?”.

After receiving my tax packet in the mail, it turns out there was a way to lower the number: by a …


To the common Joe, how bad are things… really?

Sunday, March 16th, 2008

I was watching Chris Matthews’ show this morning, and he was pinging both a republican and a democrat about how the government was handling the latest downturn in the economy. I didn’t catch the republicans response, but I did note that the democrat took to lambasting President Bush, saying that the President didn’t understand the full effect of these economic problems, and went on to criticize him for trying to sugar coat the economic problems we’re facing today in the finance markets.

My first reaction was in agreement. How could the President stand there and tell me that everything is rosy!? I’m outraged!

Then, my cup of coffee kicked …


The Berkshire Annual Report

Saturday, March 15th, 2008

If you’ve never read an annual report from Berkshire Hathaway, it’s rather interesting. As compared to many other company reports, it’s a little more succinct and easy to read. Mr. Buffett pulls no punches and doesn’t really sugar coat much.

Read the 2007 Annual Report Here


More on VIX

Friday, March 14th, 2008

In a post a couple days ago, I brought up the notion that the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX: chart) could be a good indicator of when the bottom of the stock market decline will be found.

VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Referred to by some as the fear index, it represents one measure of the market’s expectation of volatility over the next 30 day period.



The VIX is quoted in terms of percentage points …


Is a Bear headed for extinction?

Thursday, March 13th, 2008

It seems Bear Stearns (BSC: chart, web, Y!) is in a bit of a pickle. At one point today they were staring their largest one-day percentage drop since the October 1987 stock market crash in the face. Why? Exposure to mortgage securities.



The stock fell 7.4% to $57 but traded as low as $50.48, representing a decline of more than 16%. The last time the Wall Street firm’s shares had a bigger one-day percentage loss than that was Oct. 19, 1987.

They’re also worried about margin calls on mortgage-backed securities, most notably …


Is the market on it’s way back up?

Wednesday, March 12th, 2008

Between yesterday and todays market action, I’m becoming more and more encouraged that we’re getting closer to the bottom of the market fallout. I’m not sure why I feel that way, because another part of me feels that another shoe may drop, and we’ll be in for another decline.

I heard a comment recently on the radio that there has never been a recession in an election year, mostly due to the fact that those running for re-election become more focused on the needs of the people they represent (i.e. the economy) as those are the people that elect them. Not sure how true that is, but I …