Next week will reveal a lot about the state of our economy:

Institute for Supply Management data - April 1st.
The institutes’s data for March suggests a drop to 48.0 which would signal that the economy is close to falling into a recession.

Joint Economic Committee Meeting - April 2nd.
Ben Bernanke is set to testify before the congressional Joint Economic Committee on the out look of our economy. The committee will discuss whether our economy is already in a recession or heading into one.

Earnings: Best Buy and RIM - April 2nd.
Earnings reports for Best Buy (BBY: chart, web, Y!) and Research in Motion (RIMM: chart, web, Y!) are due out on Wednesday. Analysts expect an increase in Best Buy’s Q4 profits on the heals of 52% increase in Q3 profits. On top of that, earnings are expected to more than double.

Things aren’t as rosy for RIM. BlackBerry sales continue to struggle against the iPhone and Q3 results didn’t live up to expectations. EPS is expected to increase only slightly.

Why you should care? Well, Best Buy is a good indicator of consumer spending. After all, the store specializes in selling products related to discretionary spending (big screen TV’s, music, electronics… stuff we can all probably live without if times are tough). As for RIM, it’s a sign of continued pressure on Tech as a result of competition.

Non-farm payrolls report - April 4th
March non-farm payrolls are forecast to drop 30,000 and the unemployment rate is predicted to increase to 5% (still not bad). This information along with what ever rolls out of the congressional meeting on economics will help determine whether or not we’re really in a recession.

At this point in time, I’m not sure it really matters if we call this a “recession” or not, but perhaps if we can get the government to buy into the fact that we can finally call it a recession, we can move on with our lives.

Tags: BBY | payrolls | recession | RIMM | tech

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