It seems the sentiment on the trading floor is that oil is going higher. Scott Hess, is an crude trader on the Nymex, and if his outlook bears any fruit, oil is going higher.
Tags: commodities | crude oil | markets
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Quantifying the true cost of increased gas prices.
Looking for the next buy-it and forget-it stock.
What is your threshold for pain at the pump?
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March 2nd, 2008 at 8:12 pm
agree. he makes reference to money flows, money flowing out of equities and into commodities. agree with the decisions or not, that’s what’s happening. he points out that the california pension fund will be moving more and more money into ’stuff’. in my opinion, regular investors shouldn’t be piling into commodities. sure more upside is a safe risk/reward bet, but it’s a different kind of hell trying to ride an uptrend when the uptrends already been going on for over a year. when these things break they will break hard, and many on the low end of the totem pole will be tempted to add, only intensifying the spiral downward.
a second point: oil, equities, bonds, currencies, will continue to go to extremes, not necessarily because there’s super strong fundamentals to support it, but because there’s no fundamental reason to fade. people will try and pick tops in oil and bonds, only to be a part of short squeezes. people will continue to pick a bottom in equities and the dollar, only to have short sellers continue to sniff out stops.
March 2nd, 2008 at 9:48 pm
@Winston, so what fundamental reason should we be looking for to drive oil, bonds, currencies, etc, away from the extremes?
Great comments by the way! Trading commodities is a beast most investors need not do battle, and it takes a strong stomach to ride out the ups and downs of the commodities game. as I’m sure you know.
Thanks for your thoughts.
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:19 pm
Just my opinion, but THE fundamental reason will be if/when the fed points to begin raising rates. This will bring the dollar out of the basement which will simultaneously re-price commodities downward, slaughter the bond market that people have been retreating to which will in turn force money back into equities…..your thoughts about that???
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:56 pm
agree in full. -Grant