Stock Thoughts: Schering-Plough (SGP)
January 26th, 2008 by Grant in: Investing, Stock ThoughtsI’ve been watching Schering-Plough (SGP: chart, web, Y!) since I started looking for my next buy-it and forget-it stock. The stock price has fallen considerably since then on news that a company study produced disappointing results on the effects of Vytorin, a next generation cholesterol drug.
They study showed that Vytorin had no benefit on the buildup of artery plaque over the older drug Zocor. The silver lining to this story that is easily glanced over is that Vytorin cut bad cholesterol 40% more than Zocor or Zetia (Vytorin is a combo pill of Zetia and Zocor).
Opportunity Knocks?
I view these situations as opportunities. Schering is a strong company, whose stock price is being affected by panic selling stimulated by an initial communication from the FDA concerning the results of this inter-company study.
The fact is, Schering isn’t relying on the success of Vytorin to keep the company afloat, just like Merck (MRK: chart, web, Y!) didn’t bet the farm on Vioxx (which they ended up with tens of thousands of liability claims).
Schering is sitting on a P/E of 14.8, which is fairly low for big-pharma players, and the stock price has been driven down by higher than average volume on the news. I suspect that a good portion of the money that’s fleeing the company stock belongs to institutional investors already gun shy about overall market health.
The downside to SGP is that it doesn’t have the return on revenue that other, bigger pharmaceutical players like Pfizer (PFE: chart, web, Y!), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK: chart, web, Y!) and Merck, sitting at just 10.6% compared to 22.8%, 23.2% and 19.8%, respectively.
Buy-it and Forget-it?
I’m still not sure this is a buy-it and forget-it stock. The financial health of the company is good, but there are others out there that are better. However, it may be prudent to take advantage of the stock price while it’s down. Once the whole Vytorin issue blows over, like the Vioxx debacle did, I think there is some considerable upside to the stock itself. After all, there is an inherent upside of nearly 70% if you consider the recent highs of $32 per share.
Schering Plough has been beaten down by over reaction to headlines and overall market sentiment. This could be the kind of opportunity you want to take advantage of in times like these.

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January 29th, 2008 at 11:02 am
What about Frontier Oil (FTO), your the oil guy, any thoughts? It has showed up on a couple of screens that I have done recently (earnings momentum and Magic Formula). I personally bought some a couple of days ago and today it seems to be sky rocketing with some parallel to Valero news today.
I like Herman Miller (MLHR) as well but I don’t have a lot figured out on it yet.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
I think short term FTO will do OK, but you really have to be careful in the oil sector right now. If we are truly headed into a recession (and I think we are already there), you have to worry about reserve numbers now more than ever.
If people actually start driving less (which may or may not be the case), oil reserves will continue to grow which should force the price down like any good supply and demand market should.
Good move buying in the low $30’s, but I would suggest that if you see anything north of $42 you consider unloading a piece. Don’t get greedy!
Let me know what you come up with on MLHR.
-Grant