Farrell vs. Cramer
November 14th, 2007 by Grant in: Commentary, Finance, InvestingIt seems not everyone loves Jim Cramer. It seems not everyone sees the value in his show, Mad Money.
It seems that Paul Ferrell, in particular, given a stage and a microphone, is more than willing to lob the opening volley that would not only spur an open retort from the mad man himself, but a frothy discussion on boards, blogs, and forums.
In case you missed it, Paul Ferrell’s column appeared on MarketWatch.com last week, and I really didn’t find anywhere in the piece where Ferrell held anything back. I even read between the lines…
“Last week I finally listened to the “Mad Money” show for a full hour. When channel surfing in the past I’d move on after 30 seconds. It’s about as educational as Saturday morning cartoons. What I heard was a manic distraction for addicted personalities.” -Source
While fairly pointed, Ferrell does pose some good points, but I think he ended up throwing the baby out with the bath water. He contends that if you take Cramer’s advice and spend at least an hour per week “doing your homework” on each position, the opportunity cost of doing such research does not offset any realistic gains from investing in Cramer’s stock picks. He goes on to use the following example:
If you’re following Prof. Cramer’s rules and doing your “homework” you’re watching “Mad Money” five hours a week and doing another 10 hours of “homework” on your “positions.” That’s potentially 60 hours of your valuable time each month, on top of your full-time job. Assuming you’re a professional or business executive, let’s say your time’s worth $100 per hour, probably more.
So, bottom line: Your economic “opportunity lost” for 60 hours is at least $6,000 a month or $72,000 a year, playing by “Mad Money” rules. Get it folks? Your time is valuable. If you’re worth a minimum of $100 an hour and you spend 60 hours a week on any activity, you darn well better be earning at least $72,000 a year. And to make that kind of money at, say, 15% a year you’d need more than $400,000 capital at risk. -Source
That’s a cute but rather distracting example. I suspect that the vast majority of Jim Cramer’s audience earns far less than the suggested $100 per hour at their full-time job. In fact, I would wager that the average hourly income of his viewers is less than $30 per hour. My reasoning for this is that the folks who earn $100 per hour at their job know what their time is worth, just as those who earn $20 per hour. The difference is that the guy who earns $100 per hour can most likely pay someone to manage and grow his money, and need not bother with a show like Mad Money.
So I agree with his theory on opportunity cost, however the scale he suggests is not applicable in this scenario, in my opinion, and as such is less influential in the true value of the show than Ferrell suggests.
To his credit, Jim Cramer wrote a fairly civil rebuttal.
While I felt that Farrell’s article was wildly inaccurate, I will admit that it was at least a little bit original. I have never before been criticized for telling investors to research the stocks they buy. If Farrell is to be believed, spending an hour per week researching each of the stocks you own is simply a waste of time. I am glad I didn’t listen to Farrell. I never would have made the hundreds of millions of dollars I made for myself and for my investors before I retired. And I am using the same skill sets now every night on my show. -Source
Honestly I’ve never been a big Jim Cramer fan, although one has to respect his success in the market. I never bought into the hype of the show, and while entertaining, didn’t provide as much substance as I would like.
Perhaps my time is more valuable.
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November 15th, 2007 at 10:41 am
Ferrell is right on the money. One, there is an opportunity cost to investing in individual stocks even if it is at $20 an hour (instead of the $100 per hour assumed by Ferrell).
Two, the probability of beating the market is slim, especially after incorporating trading fees and capital gain taxes. The vast majority of professional money managers can’t beat their benchmark over a 10 year period so it is plausible that a “part-timer” listening to Cramer won’t either.
Three, Cramer’s performance in his hedge fund was impressive except when you compare it to the performance of tech during the same period. I don’t know what he held in his hedge fund because that information is not released, but he lagged the QQQ, and I suspect he was heavy into the hot stocks of the time. He bailed on the fund just before the market downturn of 2000. Had he earned 25% per year through the last bear market then I would be impressed. But, I bet there were lots of hedge fund, mutual fund, and even individual hedge fund managers who earned 25% per year through the 90s, only to see it tank in the early 2000s. Plus, Cramer’s picks on his show haven’t outdone the S&P according to some of the objective sources I have seen. Of course, now if anyone tries to track Cramer’s picks, CNBC tries to shut them down claiming the information is theirs.
I don’t watch Cramer except channel surfing. He is certainly entertaining, just like many of the infomercials I see. And that is how I look at him.
November 15th, 2007 at 6:59 pm
Agree on all counts Swim.
However, I think the generally accepted benchmark set by the overall market returns is a poor standard.
As a personal investor, investing your own money, you should ask yourself not if you’ve “beaten” the market, but have you returned a better ROI in the market than if you were to invest in a money market account, bonds, etc…
Right now, I can get 4.75% on my money at Emigrant Direct. If I really looked, I might be able to eek out 5% at a “conventional” FDIC insured institution. That is my standard. The avenue with little risk.
So I figure that if I can beat 5% (net) in the stock market, I’ve put my money in the right place.
-Grant