The Harder She Runs, the Harder She Falls

February 27th, 2007 by Grant in: Economics, Investing, Stock Thoughts
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What a terrible day in the market!  If you made money today, you’re either short, lucky, or lying.

Overall, the markets dropped like a rock on news out of China that their market dropped over fears the government might intervene in an attempt to slow down the market.  Eeesh, sounds eerily familiar…

“The market has risen so rapidly in the last year that there’s a growing sense of concern that policy makers will tighten control of the markets,” said Sijin Cheng, an analyst at the Eurasia Group.   -Source

I’ve never liked hard, quick runs in any market because it usually triggers over reaction in either direction.

So the next question is, will we continue to see a drop in US markets in the next few days, or do we see some composure return?

My Ford stock got stuck in reverse gear as the DOW took a nose dive to the tune of 500 points.  On top of that, my GLD also dropped on the discrepancy between major speculative interest and limited physical demand led some traders to cash in the chips.  Personally I can’t blame them.

So it’s time to re-evaluate both my Ford and GLD positions:

Gold Chart 27 Feb 07

I think, as some more astute than I concur, that we’re in for a sizable correction in both the market and economy.  If this is the case, an auto manufacturer may not be the best place to park my money.

At the same time, while Gold did drop a bit today, it is a good hedge against a weakening economy and a thin dollar.  The question remains though, how much of that golden price tag is speculation and how much is supply and demand?

While I still like Ford in the long run, I’m not sure I want to let my shares slide in a bear market.  If I sell, Gold may still be a good place to park that money…

More to come…

5 Comments

  1. Gary The Stock Market Man

    Nice job buying at the top! :)

  2. William Perchiseh

    I think that if you like Ford, long term… 3 years out, you’ll be OK. Can’t go wrong with gold tho.

    Maybe a time to buy more? William

  3. Ben

    Ditch the Ford! You could be making so much more money in GOLD!

  4. Grant

    I know Ben, but I’m thinking Gold is a little heavy (expensive) right now. If we see it continue to pull back, I’ll buy some more. Another option I’m looking at is the Deutsche Bank’s PowerShares DB Gold shares, DGL.

    I’ll write more on that later.

  5. Tom

    Chances are the drop in Gold was due to the margin calls a lot of larger investors had to cover. My neural net model is still telling me to Hold with a bias on the Long side.

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