Archive for January, 2007

Waiting on Ford to Pull Back

Sunday, January 21st, 2007

Man, if I would have bought Ford (F: Chart, web, Y!) when I first mentioned it I would have been up 15% in just a few short weeks.

I still like the outlook and I think if anyone can turn things around for the auto maker, Alan Mullaly is the guy, but I’d like to see the price pull back a little before I buy in.

The stochastics are looking a bit heavy, and I think a correction to around $8.00 wouldn’t be unrealistic, and in fact would be healthy for the stock. If that happens, I’ll start buying some shares.


A Cold in the Making

Wednesday, January 17th, 2007

I’ve been battling the precursor to a cold for the last week or so. I call it a precursor because it’s not a full blown cold just yet, but I can tell my body is working overtime to fend something off.

I’ve always been a big fan of Sudafed, but regardless of the marketing to the contrary, Sudafed seems to throw my brain into a fog, but it does seem to work.

Since I don’t want to be completely worthless for the next few days, I want to stay away from the Sudafed till I really need it.

Yesterday during lunch I went out and bought a big jug of Vitamin …


Characterizing Rental Deductions

Saturday, January 13th, 2007

Last night I pulled out my “Rental Expense Receipts” folder and started sorting them out so my tax preparer wouldn’t have to. A money saving effort on my part.

I turned to the good ‘ole IRS for some guidance on how many categories I need to establish, and what I can deduct and what I can’t.

Turns out, there are just 3 categories: Repairs, Improvements and “Other”.

According to the IRS, a “repair” keeps your property in good condition. It doesn’t materially add to the value of your property or substantially prolong its life. Repainting your property inside or out, fixing gutters or floors, fixing leaks, plastering, and replacing broken …


Short Term Memory In Effect

Thursday, January 11th, 2007

It’s interesting to me to watch the effects of our short term memory play out like a stacked deck in game of hold’em.

You might remember not too long ago (2004) that crude oil was trading down around $35 per barrel. Oil started climbing gradually through the rest of ‘04, all through ‘05 and through the majority of ‘06 before peaking just under $80 and then retreating to ring in 2007 at around $60 per barrel.

In the last oil boom (which is historically followed by a “bust”) the same trend played out before the price of crude went crashing through every known support level, plummeting through any technical indicator known …


Bought more Provident

Thursday, January 11th, 2007

Today I bought more shares of Provident Energy Trust (PVX: chart) in my Roth IRA. Some gurus that I’ve talked to suggest that oil is going to $45 per barrel, and natural gas is going to $2 per MCF.

Others still think crude oil ($wtic: chart) could go to $100 by the end of the year, and natty gas ($natgas: chart) could rise to $15.

I think they’re both wrong.

I think natural gas will be more volatile than oil, as it’s all home grown and consumed. Oil, on the other hand, has so many outside influences driving the price, that the likelihood of stability far outweighs sporadic …


Quarterly Taxes. Bleh.

Sunday, January 7th, 2007

My last installment of 2006 quarterly taxes are due next week. And I can’t say that I’m thrilled. Not at the fact that I owe taxes, after all, if you owe taxes you must have made money. I just don’t like spending money.

Due to my revenues from the oil company and the fact that it’s an S-corp company, along with the fact that I sold some stock two years ago for a $7,000 profit, Uncle Sam wanted his share. With a >$1,000 federal tax payment, the IRS also wants to make sure you don’t owe so much all at one time for next year, so they …


A Provident Pounding

Thursday, January 4th, 2007

Today shares of Provident Energy (PVX: chart, Y!) dropped $0.63 (5.9%) per share on falling crude prices. It still has a ways to fall to its previous short term low of $9.43 back in November, but today’s movement is due to different fundamental pressure than in the previous drop.

While November’s price movement was due to political tax posturing, movement over the last couple days is due to the value of the commodity itself.

Crude inventories were actually down by 1.3 million barrels last week, but the effect on the market was offset by an increase in refined products; gasoline supplies jumped by 5.6 million barrels …


Selling Off Cornerstone

Wednesday, January 3rd, 2007

With Cornerstone (CLM: Chart, Y!) being as top heavy as it is, I’ve started to slowly sell off some of my holdings, dividend be damned.

In fact, I’ve reduced my Cornerstone holdings by nearly 50%. Partly because I need to diversify, and partly because I’m worried about the effect of a 100% ROC statement on last years dividends.

I like the idea that the dividend is reinvested at the NAV, which gives you an additional 60% return on your weighty monthly income, but as the old saying goes… if it seems too good to be true.

I’m just waiting for the train to derail.

Disclosure: I own shares of CLM