Futurist Thinking In A “Here and Now” World
May 10th, 2006 by Grant in: Economics
I had a pleasant phone conversation with David Houle the other day, stemming from some email problems we’ve been having for the last few days.
I’d run across his Evolution Shift blog by way of the Freakonomics site, and after reading a few paragraphs of his posts, found myself sucked in.
David is a “Futurist”, and you need not dig too deep in his blog to figure out what a “Futurist” is. Contrary to the concept of “Thinking Ahead”, David starts ahead, and thinks in reverse.
There are some very heavy issues weighing on us today that are driving the direction of our economy. The makings of an oil crisis that are just now showing their ugly head will have a deeper impact that most could imagine if we continue on this trend of increased demand and waning supply. David’s post on what gas prices will be in 2009 could only be off in terms of the calendar, but not concept.
I’ve devoted an entire post to this guys blog because it slapped me with forward thinking in a “here and now” society, especially in the minds of people my age (20 something’s) and younger. (Ironically David and I discussed the age distribution of those subscribing to his site in our phone conversation.)
Understanding the events in the making will reveal the results of the future.
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May 12th, 2006 at 9:03 am
Thanks for the links, Johnny!
May 13th, 2006 at 8:43 am
Grant-
I like your site, which I came to through the http://www.evolutionshift.com site. That site has become one of my “favorites”. I like your description of Houle that he starts ahead and thinks in reverse. We do live in a ‘here and now’ and we do need to think ahead much more. We need more people like you and Houle that recognize that.
I am not 20 something, but I have noticed that age group seems to be concerned more about making it than solving problems. Glad you are an exception.
Johnny’s comment above about Toffler is true; he is the great thinker along these lines. I noticed in Houle’s site that he is a big fan of Toffler, which makes sense. Toffler was then, Houle is ‘Today’. Must have been nice to talk with him.
Victoria
May 13th, 2006 at 2:56 pm
Thank you kindly, Victoria.
Mr. Houle is a great person to talk to, mostly because he’s got a firm grip on history, but he also understands how significant these times are, and how they are narrowing the path we will travel into the future.
I am not too familiar with Mr. Toffler yet, but I’ll continue to dig through his work.
I think previous generations have much to teach us young “kids”, mostly about the 70’s and 80’s. Not so much about living in the hippie era, but how the economy was doing at that time. People in their 50’s tell me about the time when interest rates were North of 20% in a lot of cases, commodities prices were running away, and then the economy came crashing down on them.
The generation prior to that went through the Great Depression, which was a more severe case.
Guess what, commodities prices are running away to all time highs, these 0.25% interest rate hikes aren’t doing much to curb inflation, people are knee deep in debt, living in houses they can barely make the interest only payments on, and on top of that, no one seems to think $3 gas can hurt them much; they just charge it and deal with it later.
I have a feeling my generation is going to get slapped with a severe economic lesson, sooner rather than later, and how you will be affected depends on how well you know your history…
Thanks for reading!
May 13th, 2006 at 3:35 pm
Grant-
Thank you for the thoughtful nod to my http://www.evolutionshift.com blog. I really appreciate it! I also enjoyed our conversation, and look forward to more in the future. If we are to matriculate the difficult times ahead, it is imperative that ‘20 somethings’ bring their youthful energy to the cause of thnking ahead of the curve and developing a ‘global conscience’ that supercedes personal self interest, at least to some degree. It’s nice that there are people like yourself and ‘Victoria’ who get positively affected by the blog, that is one of the key reasons to write it.
Yes, one can not go wrong reading practically any book of Alvin Toffler’s. Future Shock, The Third Wave and Power Shift would be good places to start.
Again, thanks for pointing your readers to http://www.evolutionshift.com, email problems notwithstanding!
David Houle
May 13th, 2006 at 3:41 pm
Hi - As a 30-something entrepreneur, I can relate to your ideas and positions at corner office blog. I saw your site recommended on http://www.evolutionshift.com and think it’s cool that a 20-something and a 50-something have some common ground and great dialogue about some weighty topics.
Nice work!
MR
May 13th, 2006 at 4:50 pm
-David, I will add those books to my list of books to read, and I’ll continue to dig into Alvin Toffler’s information. Did we get our email fixed? Evidently my tech support people can’t do anything for me… Figures.
-Mando, thanks for the kind words. I think 20-somethings and 50-somethings have a lot more in common than we all realize. I am a firm believer in the theory that history repeats itself, at least to some degree. And to the extent that we will have to deal with a future iteration of history, it makes no sense to ride through it without the guidance of those who rode out the cycle.
I feel it’s going to be a fun ride! Those who haven’t yet looked beyond today might think differently.
Thanks for contributing!